The interconnectedness of the past, the present, and the future: where Turkey-EU relations have been and where they are heading

Neither the development of Turkey–EU relations nor Turkey’s accession negotiations with the EU have been uninterruptedly smooth; in fact it has been a fluctuating relationship with recurring ups and downs. This means it represents a good case for an analysis of path dependency. This article aims to use this analytical concept to highlight what is behind this fluctuating relationship. A thorough study of the history of Turkey–EU relations, using the Factiva database and surveying the existing academic literature, reveals that there are two domestic issues that have both shaped the development of the relationship between 1959 and 2005 and slowed Turkey’s accession negotiations with the EU from 2005 to 2016. These issues are: (i) external and internal actors’ interference with the functions of government and (ii) handling of the Cypriot and Kurdish problems. The article will utilise Levi’s approach on path dependency to find out how and why these two issues have continued to be relevant in the accession negotiation period between 2005 and 2016; and, in the light of this, what predictions could be made in relation to the future of the relationship.