The determinants of stock market performance in emerging economies: the case of Latin America and Asia Pacific.

A phenomenal growth of emerging markets has not only attracted an enormous interest from international instinational and individual investors, but it has also proved that these markets cannot be treated in the same way as developed markets. This research is intended to identify
the main determinants of the stock market performance in emerging economies of Latin America and Asia Pacific. The study has been motivated by the increasing importance of
thèse equity markets on the international financial arena. The capital markets of emerging economies have not only become an important asset class for international investors, but also they have become a new and increasingly important source of foreign capital for these countries. This research examines a set of macroeconomic variables, including inflation, foreign exchange rates, market integration, the Institutional Investor's country ratings, the U.S interest rates and financial risk premiums, and their role in explaining the fluctuations in the total returns on the stock markets in six Latin American and four Asia Pacific countries. The results show that the Institutional Investor's country ratings and financial risk premium are the best determinants of the stock market performance in Latin American and Asian Pacific countries. The attempt to separate the financial and country risks has also been undertaken with the successful results in four out of ten countries. The further findings show that financial risk premiums are an important risk factor, which explains the stock market returns in seven out of ten countries and, moreover, financial risk premiums appear to be an aggregate risk factor, which can successfiilly replace five macroeconomic variables, and above that they contain incremental information, which successfully explain the variance in the stock market retums. The findings may have significant implications for international investors and national policymakers in the emerging markets. The findings highlight the significance of the country default risk in explaining the stock market performance in the
Latin American and Asia Pacific economies.

Dissertation submitted to Middlesex University in partial fulfilment of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.