Patterns in stock market movements tested as random number generators

Article


Doyle, J. and Chen, C. 2013. Patterns in stock market movements tested as random number generators. European Journal of Operational Research. 227 (1), pp. 122-132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2012.11.057
TypeArticle
TitlePatterns in stock market movements tested as random number generators
AuthorsDoyle, J. and Chen, C.
Abstract

This paper shows that tests of Random Number Generators (RNGs) may be used to test the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It uses the Overlapping Serial Test (OST), a standard test in RNG research, to detect anomalous patterns in the distribution of sequences of stock market movements up and down. Our results show that most stock markets exhibit idiosyncratic recurrent patterns, contrary to the efficient market hypothesis; also that OST detects a different kind of non-randomness to standard econometric long- and short-memory tests. Exposure of these anomalies should contribute to making markets more efficient.

KeywordsStock market time series; financial data mining; forecasting; finance; overlapping serial test
PublisherElsevier
JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
ISSN0377-2217
Publication dates
PrintMay 2013
Publication process dates
Deposited11 Mar 2013
Output statusPublished
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2012.11.057
LanguageEnglish
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