Inevitable magic – reason, magic and manipulation

Magical thinking occurs when supernatural causes, as opposed to rational ones, are assumed in events that defy reasonable probability. To investigate magical thinking, 64 adults were tested in a novel experiment where they were told they were playing an online game with opposing players. However, neither the “Game” nor the opposing players were real. It was a presentation designed to provide an illusion of game play. The “game” consisted of two sessions, each showing three opposing players (six rounds each). Half the opposing players were “seen” (pre-recorded videos with confederates posing as players) and the other half were “unseen”. To play the “game”, participants were asked to choose a card (from a set of five) and then observe the opposing player attempt to guess that card without being able to see it. Participants were then shown that one-third of opposing players displayed “good luck” (many correct guesses, defined by an above average score), one-third “neutral luck” (some correct, defined by an average score), and one-third “bad luck” (almost none correct, defined by a below average score). After the game, participants were asked to score each player on how likely they are to choose that player for a second stage of the game (in reality, there was no second stage). In the results, there was a significant effect of “luck” (with higher preferences for higher luck). There was also a significant effect of visibility (seen players preferred over unseen). Participants also completed two questionnaires to assess their disposition for magical thinking. There was a weak effect of questionnaire scores on the preference for luck. Results are considered in the context of research in anthropology and psychology.