Political incumbency effects in India: a regional analysis

Article


Karnik, A., Lalvani, M. and Phatak, M. 2023. Political incumbency effects in India: a regional analysis. Studies in Economics and Econometrics. 47 (1), pp. 43-60. https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2185666
TypeArticle
TitlePolitical incumbency effects in India: a regional analysis
AuthorsKarnik, A., Lalvani, M. and Phatak, M.
Abstract

The significance of a study of political incumbency and the factors influencing it stems from the fact that it directly affects the behaviour of the incumbent political party and its accountability to the electorate. We use data on Parliamentary Elections in India from 1980 to 2014 to tease out evidence of incumbency advantage. We employ Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to estimate the incumbency effect. Our results indicate the absence of any incumbency effect when considering all elections in India together. This finding is at odds with the research reported so far. To explain our contrary result, we drilled down deeper to obtain a more granular view of the incumbency effect in India. We do this across various regions of India. The results show that north Indian states generally show strong evidence of incumbency disadvantage while south Indian states show strong evidence of incumbency advantage. We also show that incumbency advantage has increased over time.

KeywordsEconomics and Econometrics, Elections, regression discontinuity design, Indian parliament, multi-party elections, incumbency effects
Sustainable Development Goals16 Peace, justice and strong institutions
Middlesex University ThemeCreativity, Culture & Enterprise
LanguageEnglish
PublisherTaylor and Francis
JournalStudies in Economics and Econometrics
ISSN0379-6205
Electronic2693-5198
Publication dates
Online17 Mar 2023
Publication process dates
Deposited28 Mar 2023
Submitted21 Sep 2022
Accepted06 Feb 2023
Output statusPublished
Publisher's version
License
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2185666
Permalink -

https://repository.mdx.ac.uk/item/8q525

  • 28
    total views
  • 5
    total downloads
  • 3
    views this month
  • 0
    downloads this month

Export as