Hierarchical time series forecast in electrical grids

Conference paper


Gomes de Almeida, V., Ribeiro, R. and Gama, J. 2016. Hierarchical time series forecast in electrical grids. 7th International Conference on Information Science and Applications (ICISA) 2016. Ho Chi Minh City 15 - 18 Feb 2016 Singapore Springer Singapore. pp. 995-1005 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0557-2_95
TypeConference paper
TitleHierarchical time series forecast in electrical grids
AuthorsGomes de Almeida, V., Ribeiro, R. and Gama, J.
Abstract

Hierarchical time series is a first order of importance topic. Effectively, there are several applications where time series can be naturally disaggregated in a hierarchical structure using attributes such as geographical location, product type, etc. Power networks face interesting problems related to its transition to computer-aided grids. Data can be naturally disaggregated in a hierarchical structure, and there is the possibility to look for both single and aggregated points along the grid. Along this work, we applied different hierarchical forecasting methods to them. Three different approaches are compared, two common approaches, bottom-up approach, top-down approach and another one based on the hierarchical structure of data, the optimal regression combination. The evaluation considers short-term forecasting (24-h ahead). Additionally, we discussed the importance associated to the correlation degree among series to improve forecasting accuracy. Our results demonstrated that the hierarchical approach outperforms bottom-up approach at intermediate/high levels. At lower levels, it presents a superior performance in less homogeneous substations, i. e. for the substations linked to different type of customers. Additionally, its performance is comparable to the top-down approach at top levels. This approach revealed to be an interesting tool for hierarchical data analysis. It allows to achieve a good performance at top levels as the top-down approach and at same time it allows to capture series dynamics at bottom levels as the bottom-up.

Conference7th International Conference on Information Science and Applications (ICISA) 2016
Page range995-1005
ISSN1876-1100
ISBN
Hardcover9789811005565
PublisherSpringer Singapore
Place of publicationSingapore
Publication dates
Online16 Feb 2016
Publication process dates
Deposited05 Mar 2018
Accepted03 Dec 2015
Output statusPublished
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0557-2_95
LanguageEnglish
Book titleInformation Science and Applications (ICISA) 2016
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