Export composition and economic growth in the UAE

This study investigates the relationship between exports and economic growth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with a particular focus on the role of export diversification. While oil exports have historically dominated the UAE's economy, their volatility poses significant risks to sustainable growth. Uniquely, the UAE has achieved high economic growth despite its reliance on oil, prompting an exploration of how diversification in export composition may have contributed to this outcome. Using data from 1981 to 2017, collected through a collaboration between the Middle East Centre and the American University of Sharjah, the study documents a marked increase in non-primary exports from 15.1% in 1981 to 72.4% in 2017 and a substantial expansion in the range of exported goods. The findings indicate that non-primary exports have positively impacted short-term economic growth, although long-term effects remain inconclusive. The study emphasizes the need for further disaggregation of export categories to identify those most conducive to sustained growth, offering insights for policy aimed at economic stability and resilience in the face of global market fluctuations.