Economic uncertainty and fertility cycles: baby boom and busts in twentieth century USA

Using variation across US counties and states in the volatility of income growth over the course of the twentieth century, we identify a negative effect of economic uncertainty on fertility. Our findings contribute to the unraveling of the determinants of the post-WWII baby boom: the decline in economic uncertainty endured by women born in 1910 compared to that of those born in 1933 can account for an increase in fertility by 0.4 to 0.6 child, which is about 45% to 67.5% of the change across these cohorts.