Cultural and strategic dimensions of fertility

The economics of fertility has long been dominated by the Beckerian framework, in which fertility responds to prices, income, and the opportunity cost of parental time. While powerful, this framework cannot account for the spatial diffusion of fertility transitions along cultural-linguistic
lines, the persistence of fertility differences across economically similar regions, or the rapid norm shifts observed following media exposure or policy change. This chapter reviews and synthesises a growing body of evidence and theory that places cultural norms and strategic
behaviour at the centre of fertility analysis. Section 1 establishes that cultural transmission independently shapes fertility decisions, drawing on epidemiological studies, spatial diffusion analyses, and evidence of both rapid norm change and millennia-long cultural persistence. Section 2 develops two complementary frameworks for predicting when culture dominates economic incentives — a model of norm adherence versus economic optimisation, and Nunn's cultural mismatch framework — and examines how norms interact with institutions including secularisation, inheritance reform, education policy, and restrictive population policies. Section 3 explores the strategic dimension of fertility, showing how inter-group competition can generate collectively coordinated fertility norms that delay demographic transitions and shape long-run patterns of inequality. Together, these perspectives offer tools for interpreting historical demographic transitions, contemporary fertility stagnation, and the design of effective population policy.