The process of organizational interpretation and three types of uncertainty: an integrated framework.

Cognitive processes are carried out under conditions of ambiguity and uncertainty with which managers and organizations must deal. Both organizational cognition and the concept of perceived environmental uncertainty have received great attention in both the organization theory and strategic management literature, but the intimate link between cognition and uncertainty remains underexplored. In particular, empirical work has often yielded inconclusive results, and it has been suggested that perceived uncertainty should not be treated as a single construct. Little work has focused on integrating the notion of multiple types of uncertainty with the dominant interpretation constructs into one framework or model. This paper makes a series of conceptual propositions regarding the relationships between scanning, interpretation, action and three types of uncertainty. This paper thus moves us closer to an integrated framework, and to a better understanding of the organizational interpretation of environmental signals.

Winner of the Strategic Foresight SIG Best Paper Award