Expected Pass Turnovers (xPT) - a model to analyse turnovers from passing events in football
Article
Peters, A., Parmar, N., Davies, M., Reeves, M., Sormaz, M. and James, N. 2024. Expected Pass Turnovers (xPT) - a model to analyse turnovers from passing events in football. Journal of Sports Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2024.2379697
Type | Article |
---|---|
Title | Expected Pass Turnovers (xPT) - a model to analyse turnovers from passing events in football |
Authors | Peters, A., Parmar, N., Davies, M., Reeves, M., Sormaz, M. and James, N. |
Abstract | The aim of this study was to create a novel metric, Expected Pass Turnovers (xPT), that could evaluate possession retention from player passing events in football. Event and positional data were analysed from all 380 matches in the 2020-21 English Premier League season, which encompassed 256,433 passes in the final dataset. A logistic mixed effects model was implemented to attribute the probability of each pass getting turned over. The use of positional data enabled the identification of a) opposition players present in radii surrounding the ball carrier and b) availability of teammates with respect to the ball carrier. The addition of these positional features improved the accuracy (+ 6.1 AUC Score) of the model. xPT serves as a practitioner Key Performance Indicator, as analysts can identify players that lose possession more often or not than expected, given the situational context of each pass, from game to game. Future work may include modelling the turnover probability of dribble and carry actions, as this would lead to a more comprehensive understanding of turnover events in football. |
Keywords | Expected pass turnovers; logistic regression; football metric |
Sustainable Development Goals | 3 Good health and well-being |
Middlesex University Theme | Health & Wellbeing |
Research Group | Performance Analysis at the London Sport Institute |
Publisher | Taylor & Francis (Routledge) |
Journal | Journal of Sports Sciences |
ISSN | 0264-0414 |
Electronic | 1466-447X |
Publication dates | |
Online | 22 Jul 2024 |
Publication process dates | |
Submitted | 24 Apr 2023 |
Accepted | 05 Jul 2024 |
Deposited | 23 Jul 2024 |
Output status | Published |
Publisher's version | License File Access Level Open |
Copyright Statement | © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2024.2379697 |
Web of Science identifier | MEDLINE:39036961 |
WOS:001273906100001 |
https://repository.mdx.ac.uk/item/16607w
Download files
Publisher's version
Expected Pass Turnovers xPT - a model to analyse turnovers from passing events in football.pdf | ||
License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 | ||
File access level: Open |
41
total views22
total downloads3
views this month0
downloads this month