Team performance indicators that predict match outcome and points difference in professional rugby league

Article


Parmar, N., James, N., Hughes, M., Jones, H. and Hearne, G. 2017. Team performance indicators that predict match outcome and points difference in professional rugby league. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 17 (6), pp. 1044-1056. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2017.1419409
TypeArticle
TitleTeam performance indicators that predict match outcome and points difference in professional rugby league
AuthorsParmar, N., James, N., Hughes, M., Jones, H. and Hearne, G.
Abstract

Performance indicators allow for the objective quantification of performance, however, limited PI research for professional rugby league exists. Therefore, this paper assessed 24 relative PIs (home value minus away) from all 27 rounds of the 2012, 2013 and 2014 European Super League seasons, collected by Opta, amounting to 567 matches. Backwards logistic (match outcome) and linear (points difference) regression models were used alongside exhaustive Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection decision trees to identify performance indicators (PIs) and key performance indicators. Teams had a higher chance of winning and would gain more points when they scored first (OR = 1.6, β = 2.4) and increased completed sets (OR = 1.2, β = 1.2) by one unit. Conversely, teams had a lower chance of winning when they increased scoots (OR = 0.9, β = −0.2). However, some PIs which were thought to be important (as identified by previous literature) were removed from the analysis thus calling into question the appropriateness of stepwise methods. Future research may consider utilising dimension reduction techniques when analysing large data-sets that encompass multiple variables.

KeywordsPerformance indicators; rugby league; regression; decision trees
Research GroupPerformance Analysis at the London Sport Institute
LanguageEnglish
PublisherTaylor & Francis (Routledge)
JournalInternational Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport
ISSN2474-8668
Electronic1474-8185
Publication dates
Online10 Jan 2018
Print02 Nov 2017
Publication process dates
Deposited23 Jan 2018
Submitted22 Nov 2017
Accepted17 Dec 2017
Output statusPublished
Accepted author manuscript
Copyright Statement

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport on 10/01/2018, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/24748668.2017.1419409

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2017.1419409
Web of Science identifierWOS:000424788000017
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James, N., Taylor, J. and Stanley, S. 2007. Reliability procedures for categorical data in performance analysis. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 7 (1), pp. 1-11.
The statistical analysis of golf performance.
James, N. 2007. The statistical analysis of golf performance. International journal of Sports Science & Coaching. 2, pp. 231-249. https://doi.org/10.1260/174795407789705424
Approach shot accuracy as a performance indicator for US PGA tour golf professionals
James, N. and Rees, G. 2008. Approach shot accuracy as a performance indicator for US PGA tour golf professionals. International journal of Sports Science & Coaching. 3, pp. 145-160. https://doi.org/10.1260/174795408785024225
Notational analysis in soccer: past, present and future.
James, N. 2006. Notational analysis in soccer: past, present and future. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 6 (2), pp. 67-81.
An exercise protocol that simulates the activity patterns of elite junior squash.
Kingsley, M., James, N., Kilduff, L., Dietzig, R. and Dietzig, B. 2006. An exercise protocol that simulates the activity patterns of elite junior squash. Journal of Sports Sciences. 24 (12), pp. 1291-1296. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410500497766
The role of notational analysis in soccer coaching.
James, N. 2006. The role of notational analysis in soccer coaching. International journal of Sports Science & Coaching. 1 (2), pp. 185-198. https://doi.org/10.1260/174795406777641294
Human processes of control: tracing the goals and strategies of control room teams.
Patrick, J., James, N. and Ahmed, A. 2006. Human processes of control: tracing the goals and strategies of control room teams. Ergonomics. 49 (12-13), pp. 1395-1414. https://doi.org/10.1080/00140130600613042
Observational assessment of situation awareness, team differences and training implications.
Patrick, J., James, N., Ahmed, A. and Halliday, P. 2006. Observational assessment of situation awareness, team differences and training implications. Ergonomics. 49 (4), pp. 393-417. https://doi.org/10.1080/00140130600576272
The development of position-specific performance indicators in professional rugby union.
James, N., Mellalieu, S. and Jones, N. 2005. The development of position-specific performance indicators in professional rugby union. Journal of Sports Sciences. 23 (1), pp. 63-72. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410410001730106
A comparison of individual and unit tactical behaviour and team strategy in professional soccer.
Taylor, J., Mellalieu, S. and James, N. 2005. A comparison of individual and unit tactical behaviour and team strategy in professional soccer. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 5 (2), pp. 87-101.
Game location effects in professional soccer: a case study.
Tucker, W., Mellalieu, S., James, N. and Taylor, J. 2005. Game location effects in professional soccer: a case study. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 5 (2), pp. 23-35.
Team performance indicators as a function of winning and losing in rugby union.
Jones, N., Mellalieu, S. and James, N. 2004. Team performance indicators as a function of winning and losing in rugby union. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 4 (1), pp. 61-71.
Possession as a performance indicator in soccer.
Jones, P., James, N. and Mellalieu, S. 2004. Possession as a performance indicator in soccer. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 4 (1), pp. 98-104.
The effects of creatine supplementation on cardiovascular, metabolic, and thermoregulatory responses during exercise in the heat in endurance-trained humans.
Kilduff, L., Georgiades, E., James, N., Minnion, R., Mitchell, M., Kingsmore, D., Hadjicharlambous, M. and Pitsiladis, Y. 2004. The effects of creatine supplementation on cardiovascular, metabolic, and thermoregulatory responses during exercise in the heat in endurance-trained humans. International Journal of Sports Nutrition and Exercise Metabolism. 14 (4), pp. 446-463.
Process tracing of complex cognitive work tasks.
Patrick, J. and James, N. 2004. Process tracing of complex cognitive work tasks. Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology. 77 (2), pp. 259-280. https://doi.org/10.1348/096317904774202171
Passing in the Soccer World Cup 2002.
Scoulding, A., James, N. and Taylor, J. 2004. Passing in the Soccer World Cup 2002. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 4 (2), pp. 36-41.
Behavioural comparisons of positional demands in professional soccer.
Taylor, J., Mellalieu, S. and James, N. 2004. Behavioural comparisons of positional demands in professional soccer. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 4 (1), pp. 81-97.
Analysis of strategies in soccer as a function of European and domestic competition.
James, N., Mellalieu, S. and Hollely, C. 2002. Analysis of strategies in soccer as a function of European and domestic competition. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2 (1), pp. 85-103.
Educational strategies used in increasing fluid intake and enhancing hydration status in field hockey players preparing for competition in a hot and humid environment: a case study.
Dabinett, J., Reid, K. and James, N. 2001. Educational strategies used in increasing fluid intake and enhancing hydration status in field hockey players preparing for competition in a hot and humid environment: a case study. International Journal of Sport Nutrition and Exercise Metabolism. 11 (3), pp. 334-348.
Tactical use of the T area in squash by players of differing standard.
Vuckovic, G., Pers, J., James, N. and Hughes, M. 2009. Tactical use of the T area in squash by players of differing standard. Journal of Sports Sciences. 27 (8), pp. 863-871. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410902926412
Performance analysis of golf: reflections on the past and a vision of the future.
James, N. 2009. Performance analysis of golf: reflections on the past and a vision of the future. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 9 (2), pp. 188-209.
Measurement error associated with the SAGIT/Squash computer tracking software.
Vuckovic, G., Pers, J., James, N. and Hughes, M. 2010. Measurement error associated with the SAGIT/Squash computer tracking software. European Journal of Sport Science. 10 (2), pp. 129-140. https://doi.org/10.1080/17461390903311927
Situation variable effects and tactical performance in professional association football
Taylor, J., Mellalieu, S., James, N. and Barter, P. 2010. Situation variable effects and tactical performance in professional association football. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 10 (3), pp. 255-269.
Remediation technologies for the removal of arsenic from water and wastewater
Garelick, H., Bollinger, J., Bux, K., Caussy, D., Dybowska, A., Ellis, J., Feldmann, J., Jones, H., Priest, N., Shevah, Y., Sneddon, R., Valsami-Jones, E. and Visoottiviseth, P. 2005. Remediation technologies for the removal of arsenic from water and wastewater. 43rd IUPAC General Assembly. Beijing, China 13 - 21 Aug 2005
Water and health. [Chapter 6 of 'Sustainable water: chemical science priorities summary report']
Green, C., Donner, E., Faulkner, H., Garelick, H., Jones, H., Revitt, D. and Lundy, L. 2007. Water and health. [Chapter 6 of 'Sustainable water: chemical science priorities summary report']. Royal Society of Chemistry.
Mitigating arsenic pollution: bridging the gap between knowledge and practice
Garelick, H. and Jones, H. 2008. Mitigating arsenic pollution: bridging the gap between knowledge and practice. Chemistry International. 30 (4).
The xenobiotic impact of sedimentary metals in an urban river
Adeyemi, A., Lundy, L., Revitt, D., Jones, H. and Faulkner, H. 2009. The xenobiotic impact of sedimentary metals in an urban river. International Conference on Xenobiotics in the Urban Water Cycle (Proceedings of). Paphos, Cyprus 11 - 13 Mar 2009
Constructed wetland control of BOD levels in airport runoff
Adeola, S., Revitt, D., Shutes, B., Garelick, H., Jones, H. and Jones, C. 2009. Constructed wetland control of BOD levels in airport runoff. International Journal of Phytoremediation. 11 (1), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1080/15226510802363220
Case Reports: Arsenic pollution in Thailand, Bangladesh and Hungary
Jones, H., Visoottiviseth, P., Bux, M., Földényi, R., Kováts, N., Borbély, G. and Galbács, Z. 2008. Case Reports: Arsenic pollution in Thailand, Bangladesh and Hungary. in: Garelick, H. and Jones, H. (ed.) Reviews of Environmental Contamination New York Springer.
Factors influencing subjective ranking of driver distractions
Patel, J., Ball, D. and Jones, H. 2008. Factors influencing subjective ranking of driver distractions. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 40 (1), pp. 392-395. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2007.07.006
Arsenic pollution sources
Garelick, H., Jones, H., Dybowska, A. and Valsami-Jones, E. 2008. Arsenic pollution sources. in: Garelick, H. and Jones, H. (ed.) Reviews of environmental contamination: international perspectives on arsenic pollution and remediation New York Springer.
Resistance to three antimicrobial agents of Campylobacter isolated from organically- and intensively-reared chickens purchased from retail outlets
Soonthornchaikul, N., Garelick, H., Jones, H., Jacobs, J., Ball, D. and Choudhury, M. 2006. Resistance to three antimicrobial agents of Campylobacter isolated from organically- and intensively-reared chickens purchased from retail outlets. International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. 27 (2), pp. 125-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2005.09.020
The performance of vegetative treatment systems for highway runoff during dry and wet weather conditions
Revitt, D., Forshaw, M., Jones, H. and Shutes, B. 2004. The performance of vegetative treatment systems for highway runoff during dry and wet weather conditions. Science of the Total Environment. 334-335. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2004.04.046
Practical experiences of the use of vegetated ponds for the treatment of highway runoff
Revitt, D., Shutes, B., Jones, H., Forshaw, M. and Winter, B. 2003. Practical experiences of the use of vegetated ponds for the treatment of highway runoff. Pratt, C., Davies, J., Newman, A. and Perry, J. (ed.) 2nd National UK Conference on Sustainable Drainage. Coventry, UK 23 - 24 Jun 2003 School of Science and the Environment, Coventry University. pp. 19-29
Training to break the barriers of habit in reasoning about unusual faults.
Patrick, J., Grainger, L., Gregov, A., Halliday, P., Handley, J., James, N. and O'Reilly, S. 1999. Training to break the barriers of habit in reasoning about unusual faults. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied. 5 (3), pp. 314-335. https://doi.org/10.1037/1076-898X.5.3.314