The Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust Public Inquiry Report. What it is likely to say and the Government’s likely response: a risk assessment

This Working Paper explores the likely impact on the safety and quality of NHS provision in the light of the likely Government response to the issues the Inquiry has indicated it will be making recommendations on. The Inquiry Report will be handed to Secretary of State Jeremy Hunt in early January 2013 and he will then respond, though it is unclear when. The Inquiry Chair has made clear the issues he is likely to make recommendations on, and the closing written and verbal submissions from the lead counsel to the Inquiry, Tom Kark QC, give a good steer on what those recommendations are likely to include. The Inquiry Report is widely regarded as being the most important such Report for a decade and comes amid unprecedented turmoil in the NHS. The recommendations and the Government response to them are likely to significantly define important policy issues, political disagreements and discussion about the future role of the providing, commissioning, supervisory and regulatory bodies. This paper provides a “Risk rating” of the main areas of the likely Inquiry recommendations based on an assessment of the impact that the likely government response will have on care quality and patient safety: Red indicates serious adverse consequences; Amber indicates moderate adverse consequences; Green indicates no adverse consequences. This Paper concludes that there will remain serious risks for many of the issues likely to be highlighted by the Inquiry Report if Government response is as may be reasonably forecast. The paper has three sections. The introduction sets the Inquiry report in context. The main section considers the central issues that the Inquiry is likely to make recommendations about. The final section considers concerns not directly considered by the Inquiry but which are regarded as impacting on the implementation of its recommendations.

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