Social networks and citizen election forecasting: the more friends the better

Article


Leiter, D., Murr, A., Rascon Ramirez, E. and Stegmaier, M. 2018. Social networks and citizen election forecasting: the more friends the better. International Journal of Forecasting. 34 (2), pp. 235-248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.11.006
TypeArticle
TitleSocial networks and citizen election forecasting: the more friends the better
AuthorsLeiter, D., Murr, A., Rascon Ramirez, E. and Stegmaier, M.
Abstract

Most citizens correctly forecast which party will win a given election, and such forecasts usually have a higher level of accuracy than voter intention polls. How do citizens do it? We argue that social networks are a big part of the answer: much of what we know as citizens comes from our interactions with others. Previous research has considered only indirect characteristics of social networks when analyzing why citizens are good forecasters. We use a unique German survey and consider direct measures of social networks in order to explore their role in election forecasting. We find that three network characteristics – size, political composition, and frequency of political discussion – are among the most important variables when predicting the accuracy of citizens’ election forecasts.

LanguageEnglish
PublisherElsevier
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
ISSN0169-2070
Publication dates
Online02 Feb 2018
Print01 Apr 2018
Publication process dates
Deposited16 Jul 2018
Accepted17 Nov 2017
Output statusPublished
Accepted author manuscript
License
Accepted author manuscript
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Copyright Statement

Copyright: © 2017 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. This author's accepted manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.11.006
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https://repository.mdx.ac.uk/item/87w02

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