Global trends of chronic non-communicable diseases risk factors

Background
One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to reduce, by 2025, the rise in global trends of major non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in NCD risk factors.
Methods
Data from the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) allowed the analysis of over 128 million children, adolescents, and adults with available information on height and weight, 4.4 million participants with data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers, and 19 million adults that had measured the blood pressures.
Results
No changes in age-standardised mean BMI in girls and boys from 1975 to 2016 were registered in eastern Europe, while an increase of up to 1.00 kg/m2 per decade was reported in central Latin America (for girls) and in Polynesia and Micronesia (for boys). Global prevalence of obesity increased from less than 1% in 1975 to 5.6% and 7.8% in 2016 in girls and boys, respectively. In adults, prevalence of obesity increased from 3.2% in 1975 to 10.8% in 2014 in men, and from 6.4% to 14.9% in women. Global diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% in 1980 to 9.0% in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% to 7.9% in women; the lowest prevalence in 2014 has been recorded in northwestern Europe. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014. Estimation from current trends shows that only a minority of countries (mostly in western Europe) have a 50% or higher probability of halting the rise of diabetes by 2025. Global prevalence of raised blood pressure was more than 20% in both men and women in 2015. Globally, the number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1.13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries.
Interpretation
The burden of NCD risk factors is partially due to population growth and ageing. However, lifestyle factors play a crucial role in NCD prevention.

European Journal of Public Health, Volume 29, Issue Supplement_4, November 2019
Supplement 12th European Public Health Conference Building bridges for solidarity and public health Marseille, France 20th–23rd November 2019