Applying an Expected Pass Turnovers model to inform pressing strategies in professional football

Article

Peters, A., Parmar, N., Davies, M. and James, N. 2026. Applying an Expected Pass Turnovers model to inform pressing strategies in professional football. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2026.2671547
TypeArticle
Title Applying an Expected Pass Turnovers model to inform pressing strategies in professional football
AuthorsPeters, A., Parmar, N., Davies, M. and James, N.
Abstract

The aim of this study was to apply the Expected Pass Turnovers (xPT) model and demonstrate its practical applications within a practitioner setting. The model was implemented using event data and positional data from all 380 matches in the 2020/21 English Premier League season, comprising 256,433 passes in the final dataset. Players exhibiting lower pass retention ability, as quantified by xPT, can be identified as pressing targets for opposing teams and subsequently can be targeted through deliberate pressing strategies to regain possession. Furthermore, the defensive quality of players was evaluated using a complementary metric derived from xPT, termed Expected Pass Turnovers Forced (xPTF). As xPT quantifies the probability of turnovers for each pass based on contextual features, xPTF extends this by attributing these probabilities to the defending player applying pressure. Hence, the xPTF value was calculated for all passes made under pressure and attributed to the closest player executing the pressure action. Team-level xPTF performance correlated with Passes per Defensive Action (PPDA; R = -0.52, p < 0.05), supporting the metric’s validity. Overall, the xPT model provides actionable insight into potential pressing targets, while xPTF serves as an evaluative tool for assessing individual and team pressing performance.

KeywordsFootball metric; expected pass turnovers; performance analysis; football applications
Sustainable Development Goals3 Good health and well-being
Middlesex University ThemeHealth & Wellbeing
Research GroupPerformance Analysis at the London Sport Institute
PublisherTaylor & Francis (Routledge)
JournalInternational Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport
ISSN2474-8668
Electronic1474-8185
Publication dates
Online11 May 2026
Publication process dates
Submitted18 Nov 2025
Accepted05 May 2026
Deposited08 Jun 2026
Output statusPublished
Publisher's version
License
File Access Level
Open
Copyright Statement

© 2026 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2026.2671547
LanguageEnglish
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