The ageing Scottish population

As the results from the 2001 census start to trickle out it is apparent that the population of Scotland is shrinking and is the first modern European population to do so. This has largely been a result of sustained low fertility. The current total period fertility rate is estimated to be 1.48. As a consequence, the population of Scotland is getting older and it is projected that by 2009 there will be more people over pensionable age than those aged up to 16 years. In this paper the demographic situation of Scotland is reviewed in the context of European demography. From this review it will be clear that the headline figure masks huge regional differences. For example, it is projected that by 2013 that the population of Glasgow will fall by 8.7% while that of Lothian will increase by 3.7%. The causes and consequences of this demographic profile will be discussed. Consideration will be given to the impact on the Scottish economy, notably the labour force implications.