Preparing for the future: development of an ‘antifragile’ methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation

Article

Derbyshire, J. and Wright, G. 2014. Preparing for the future: development of an ‘antifragile’ methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 82, pp. 215-225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.07.001
TypeArticle
TitlePreparing for the future: development of an ‘antifragile’ methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation
AuthorsDerbyshire, J. and Wright, G.
Abstract

This paper demonstrates that the Intuitive Logics method of scenario planning emphasises the causal unfolding of future events and that this emphasis limits its ability to aid preparation for the future, for example by giving a misleading impression as to the usefulness of ‘weak signals’ or ‘early warnings’. We argue for the benefits of an alternative method that views uncertainty as originating from indeterminism. We develop and illustrate an ‘antifragile’ approach to preparing for the future and present it as a step-by-step, non-deterministic methodology that can be used as a replacement for, or as a complement to, the causally-focused approach of scenario planning.

Keywordsscenario planning; Intuitive Logics; causality; indeterminism; fragility; uncertainty
Research GroupCentre for Enterprise, Environment and Development Research (CEEDR)
PublisherElsevier
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
ISSN0040-1625
Publication dates
Print01 Feb 2014
Online16 Aug 2013
Publication process dates
Deposited07 May 2015
Accepted07 Jul 2013
Output statusPublished
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.07.001
LanguageEnglish
First submitted version
Permalink -

https://repository.mdx.ac.uk/item/85434

Log in to edit

Download files

  • 28
    total views
  • 56
    total downloads
  • 4
    views this month
  • 14
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

The value of experiments in futures and foresight science: A reply
Derbyshire, J., Dhami, M., Belton, I. and Onkal, D. 2023. The value of experiments in futures and foresight science: A reply. Futures & Foresight Science. 5 (2). https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.156
Borrowing from Keynes’ A Treatise on Probability: a non-probabilistic measure of uncertainty for scenario planning
Derbyshire, J., Feduzi, A. and Runde, J. 2023. Borrowing from Keynes’ A Treatise on Probability: a non-probabilistic measure of uncertainty for scenario planning. European Management Review. 20 (4), pp. 638-650. https://doi.org/10.1111/emre.12549
The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning
Derbyshire, J., Dhami, M., Belton, I. and Onkal, D. 2022. The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning. Futures & Foresight Science. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.146
Is seeking certainty in climate sensitivity measures counterproductive in the context of climate emergency? The case for scenario planning
Derbyshire, J. and Morgan, J. 2022. Is seeking certainty in climate sensitivity measures counterproductive in the context of climate emergency? The case for scenario planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 182, pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121811
Dominant narratives, uncertainty denial, negative capability and conviction: a commentary on Fenton-O’Creevy and Tuckett 2021
Derbyshire, J. 2022. Dominant narratives, uncertainty denial, negative capability and conviction: a commentary on Fenton-O’Creevy and Tuckett 2021. Futures & Foresight Science. 4 (3-4). https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.117
Increasing preparedness for extreme events using plausibility-based scenario planning: lessons from COVID-19
Derbyshire, J. 2022. Increasing preparedness for extreme events using plausibility-based scenario planning: lessons from COVID-19. Risk Analysis. 42 (1), pp. 97-104. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13827
Cross-fertilising scenario planning and business history by process-tracing historical developments: aiding counterfactual reasoning and uncovering history to come
Derbyshire, J. 2020. Cross-fertilising scenario planning and business history by process-tracing historical developments: aiding counterfactual reasoning and uncovering history to come. Business History. https://doi.org/10.1080/00076791.2020.1844667
Review of Mario Morroni, 'What is the truth about the Great Recession and increasing inequality? Dialogues on disputed issues and conflicting theories', Cham: Springer, 2018 [Book review]
Derbyshire, J. 2019. Review of Mario Morroni, 'What is the truth about the Great Recession and increasing inequality? Dialogues on disputed issues and conflicting theories', Cham: Springer, 2018 [Book review]. Annals of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi. LIII (2), pp. 289-292. https://doi.org/10.26331/1095
History and scenario planning: a commentary on Schoemaker 2020
Derbyshire, J. 2020. History and scenario planning: a commentary on Schoemaker 2020. Futures & Foresight Science. 2 (3-4). https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.47
Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: old lessons and new scenario tools
Derbyshire, J. 2020. Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: old lessons and new scenario tools. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space. 52 (4), pp. 710-727. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X19877885
Use of scenario planning as a theory-driven evaluation tool
Derbyshire, J. 2019. Use of scenario planning as a theory-driven evaluation tool. Futures & Foresight Science. 1 (1). https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.1
Enhancing Horizon Scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important 'weak signals'
Rowe, E., Wright, G. and Derbyshire, J. 2017. Enhancing Horizon Scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important 'weak signals'. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 125, pp. 224-235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.08.001
The siren call of probability: dangers associated with using probability for consideration of the future
Derbyshire, J. 2017. The siren call of probability: dangers associated with using probability for consideration of the future. Futures. 88, pp. 43-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.03.011
Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting
Derbyshire, J. and Giovannetti, E. 2017. Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 125, pp. 334-344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.02.007
Exploring the value of defence jobs in the UK
Vaze, P., Thol, C., Fraser, A., Derbyshire, J. and Savic, M. 2017. Exploring the value of defence jobs in the UK. Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy.
Augmenting the Intuitive Logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation
Derbyshire, J. and Wright, G. 2017. Augmenting the Intuitive Logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation. International Journal of Forecasting. 33 (1), pp. 254-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.004
Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning
Derbyshire, J. 2017. Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 124, pp. 77-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.05.008
The critical role of history in scenario thinking: augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology
Bradfield, R., Derbyshire, J. and Wright, G. 2016. The critical role of history in scenario thinking: augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology. Futures. 77, pp. 56-66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.02.002
The implications, challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies
Derbyshire, J. 2016. The implications, challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies. Futures. 77, pp. 45-55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.02.001
Firm growth and the illusion of randomness
Derbyshire, J. and Garnsey, E. 2014. Firm growth and the illusion of randomness. Journal of Business Venturing Insights. 1-2, pp. 8-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbvi.2014.09.003
The impact of ambidexterity on enterprise performance: evidence from 15 countries and 14 sectors
Derbyshire, J. 2014. The impact of ambidexterity on enterprise performance: evidence from 15 countries and 14 sectors. Technovation. 34 (10), pp. 574-581. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.technovation.2014.05.010
Small business survey: linking 2006 and 2007 waves to the IDBR
Meldgaard, J., Vaze, P., Derbyshire, J. and Davies, B. 2015. Small business survey: linking 2006 and 2007 waves to the IDBR. The Department for Business Innovation & Skills.
Are firm growth paths random? A further response regarding Gambler's Ruin Theory
Derbyshire, J. and Garnsey, E. 2015. Are firm growth paths random? A further response regarding Gambler's Ruin Theory. Journal of Business Venturing Insights. 3, pp. 9-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbvi.2014.12.001