Preparing for the future: development of an ‘antifragile’ methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation

Article

Derbyshire, J. and Wright, G. 2014. Preparing for the future: development of an ‘antifragile’ methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 82, pp. 215-225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.07.001
TypeArticle
TitlePreparing for the future: development of an ‘antifragile’ methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation
AuthorsDerbyshire, J. and Wright, G.
Abstract

This paper demonstrates that the Intuitive Logics method of scenario planning emphasises the causal unfolding of future events and that this emphasis limits its ability to aid preparation for the future, for example by giving a misleading impression as to the usefulness of ‘weak signals’ or ‘early warnings’. We argue for the benefits of an alternative method that views uncertainty as originating from indeterminism. We develop and illustrate an ‘antifragile’ approach to preparing for the future and present it as a step-by-step, non-deterministic methodology that can be used as a replacement for, or as a complement to, the causally-focused approach of scenario planning.

Keywordsscenario planning; Intuitive Logics; causality; indeterminism; fragility; uncertainty
Research GroupCentre for Enterprise, Environment and Development Research (CEEDR)
PublisherElsevier
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
ISSN0040-1625
Publication dates
Print01 Feb 2014
Online16 Aug 2013
Publication process dates
Deposited07 May 2015
Accepted07 Jul 2013
Output statusPublished
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.07.001
LanguageEnglish
First submitted version
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