Is seeking certainty in climate sensitivity measures counterproductive in the context of climate emergency? The case for scenario planning

Article


Derbyshire, J. and Morgan, J. 2022. Is seeking certainty in climate sensitivity measures counterproductive in the context of climate emergency? The case for scenario planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 182, pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121811
TypeArticle
TitleIs seeking certainty in climate sensitivity measures counterproductive in the context of climate emergency? The case for scenario planning
AuthorsDerbyshire, J. and Morgan, J.
Abstract

Climate emergency is fast becoming the overriding problem of our times and rapid reductions in carbon emissions a primary policy focus that is liable to affect all aspects of society and economy. A key component in climate science is the “climate sensitivity” measure and there has been a recent attempt using Bayesian updating to narrow this measure in the interests of “firming up the science”. We explore a two-stage argument in this regard. First, despite good intentions, use of Bayes sits awkwardly with uncertainty in the form of known unknowns and surprise. Second, narrowing the range may have counterproductive consequences, since the problem is anthropogenic climate change, and there are asymmetric effects from under-response in the face of irreversible and ampliative effects. As such, narrowing the range using Bayes may inadvertently violate the precautionary principle. We take from this that there is a case to be made for scenario focused decision frameworks.

KeywordsClimate emergency; Climate sensitivity; Bayesian updating; Uncertainty; Scenario planning
PublisherElsevier
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
ISSN0040-1625
Publication dates
Online18 Jun 2022
Print30 Sep 2022
Publication process dates
Deposited10 Jun 2022
Submitted29 Nov 2021
Accepted08 Jun 2022
Output statusPublished
Publisher's version
License
Accepted author manuscript
License
File Access Level
Restricted
Copyright Statement

Published article: © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121811
LanguageEnglish
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