Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting

Article


Derbyshire, J. and Giovannetti, E. 2017. Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 125, pp. 334-344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.02.007
TypeArticle
TitleUnderstanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting
AuthorsDerbyshire, J. and Giovannetti, E.
Abstract

In this paper we show that New Product Development (NPD) is subject to fundamental uncertainty that is both epistemic and ontic in nature. We argue that this uncertainty cannot be mitigated using forecasting techniques exclusively, because these are most useful in circumstances characteristic of probabilistic risk, as distinct from non-probabilistic uncertainty. We show that the mitigation of uncertainty in relation to NPD requires techniques able to take account of the socio-economic factors that can combine to cause present assumptions about future demand conditions to be incorrect. This can be achieved through an Intuitive Logics (IL) scenario planning process designed specifically to mitigate uncertainty associated with NPD by incorporating insights from both quantitative modelling alongside consideration of political, social, technological and legal factors, as-well-as stakeholder motivations that are central to successful NPD. In this paper we therefore achieve three objectives: 1) identify the aspects of the current IL process salient to mitigating the uncertainty of NPD 2) show how advances in diffusion modelling can be used to identify the social-network and contagion effects that lead to a product’s full diffusion 3) show how the IL process can be further enhanced to facilitate detailed consideration of the factors enabling and inhibiting initial market-acceptance, and then the forecasted full diffusion of a considered new product. We provide a step-by-step guide to the implementation of this adapted IL scenario planning process designed specifically to mitigate uncertainty in relation to NPD.
Keywords: new product development; fundamental uncertainty; scenario planning; forecasting

Research GroupCentre for Enterprise, Environment and Development Research (CEEDR)
LanguageEnglish
PublisherElsevier
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
ISSN0040-1625
Publication dates
Online03 Mar 2017
Print01 Dec 2017
Publication process dates
Deposited14 Feb 2017
Accepted06 Feb 2017
Output statusPublished
Publisher's version
License
Accepted author manuscript
License
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.02.007
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