Augmenting the Intuitive Logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation

Article

Derbyshire, J. and Wright, G. 2017. Augmenting the Intuitive Logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation. International Journal of Forecasting. 33 (1), pp. 254-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.004
TypeArticle
TitleAugmenting the Intuitive Logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation
AuthorsDerbyshire, J. and Wright, G.
Abstract

This paper shows the standard approach to scenario planning, known as ‘Intuitive Logics’, to be, in practice, overly-focused on uncovering cause of one type, known as ‘efficient cause’. We outline and apply a broader consideration of cause, leading to a more sophisticated analysis of uncertainty. Our focus is on incorporation of Aristotle’s nuanced analysis of causation. We incorporate the features of our augmented scenario development approach in a practical step-by-step methodology and draw out several implications for expert knowledge elicitation.

Research GroupCentre for Enterprise, Environment and Development Research (CEEDR)
PublisherElsevier
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
ISSN0169-2070
Publication dates
Online04 May 2016
Print01 Jan 2017
Publication process dates
Deposited13 Apr 2016
Submitted15 Jan 2016
Accepted11 Apr 2016
Output statusPublished
Publisher's version
License
Accepted author manuscript
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File Access Level
Restricted
Copyright Statement

© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.004
LanguageEnglish
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