Augmenting the Intuitive Logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation

Article


Derbyshire, J. and Wright, G. 2017. Augmenting the Intuitive Logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation. International Journal of Forecasting. 33 (1), pp. 254-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.004
TypeArticle
TitleAugmenting the Intuitive Logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation
AuthorsDerbyshire, J. and Wright, G.
Abstract

This paper shows the standard approach to scenario planning, known as ‘Intuitive Logics’, to be, in practice, overly-focused on uncovering cause of one type, known as ‘efficient cause’. We outline and apply a broader consideration of cause, leading to a more sophisticated analysis of uncertainty. Our focus is on incorporation of Aristotle’s nuanced analysis of causation. We incorporate the features of our augmented scenario development approach in a practical step-by-step methodology and draw out several implications for expert knowledge elicitation.

Research GroupCentre for Enterprise, Environment and Development Research (CEEDR)
LanguageEnglish
PublisherElsevier
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
ISSN0169-2070
Publication dates
Online04 May 2016
Print01 Jan 2017
Publication process dates
Deposited13 Apr 2016
Submitted15 Jan 2016
Accepted11 Apr 2016
Output statusPublished
Publisher's version
License
Accepted author manuscript
License
File Access Level
Restricted
Copyright Statement

© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.004
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