Borrowing from Keynes’ A Treatise on Probability: a non-probabilistic measure of uncertainty for scenario planning

Article

Derbyshire, J., Feduzi, A. and Runde, J. 2023. Borrowing from Keynes’ A Treatise on Probability: a non-probabilistic measure of uncertainty for scenario planning. European Management Review. 20 (4), pp. 638-650. https://doi.org/10.1111/emre.12549
TypeArticle
TitleBorrowing from Keynes’ A Treatise on Probability: a non-probabilistic measure of uncertainty for scenario planning
AuthorsDerbyshire, J., Feduzi, A. and Runde, J.
Abstract

Scenario planning is a tool used to formulate contingent but potentially impactful futures to aid strategic decision-making. A crucial element of many versions of scenario planning is an assessment of levels of uncertainty about the broad drivers of change within the system under consideration. Despite the importance of this element, the scenario planning literature is largely silent on the appropriate conception of uncertainty to use, exactly what it attaches to and how it might be measured. This paper seeks to fill this gap by advancing a non-probabilistic measure of uncertainty based on the concept of evidential weight drawn from the economist John Maynard Keynes' 1921 A Treatise on Probability.

Keywordsscenario planning; uncertainty; Keynes; openness; organizational myopia
PublisherWiley
JournalEuropean Management Review
ISSN1740-4754
Electronic1740-4762
Publication dates
Online19 Dec 2022
PrintDec 2023
Publication process dates
Deposited25 Nov 2022
Submitted27 Jan 2022
Accepted24 Nov 2022
Output statusPublished
Publisher's version
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File Access Level
Open
Accepted author manuscript
File Access Level
Restricted
Copyright Statement

© 2022 The Authors. European Management Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Academy of Management (EURAM).
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

Additional information

[Correction added on 28 April 2023, after first online publication: Article category was corrected in this version]

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1111/emre.12549
LanguageEnglish
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