The value of experiments in futures and foresight science: A reply

We thank those responding to our paper ‘The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning’ (Derbyshire et al., 2022a). The research on which the paper was based was funded by a Research and Capacity Building Grant from the Society for the Advancement of Management Studies (SAMS) and the British Academy of Management (BAM). In addition to writing the focal paper, the project funded by the grant also saw the authors conduct three controlled experiments related to scenario planning, findings from which are to be reported in two further papers that are currently under review. We thank SAMS and BAM for their support in developing an area of research which is rapidly increasing in importance.
In the UK, scenarios featured centrally within official government decision-making processes during the coronavirus pandemic and were referred to in the media daily. The pandemic confirmed that, if it were ever possible to deny fundamental uncertainty or that new tools and methods are needed to tackle it, that is no longer the case. The dangers associated with closing the future to make it amenable to standard forecasting tools and probability-based decision aids are clear. Closing the future to make it amenable to these standard tools leads to blindsiding by surprises. Yet, recognising the dangers associated with tools that are presently more mainstream is one thing and evidencing the efficacy of alternative tools quite another. Experiments should be a tool in the methodological toolbox of those searching for this evidence for the reasons we outlined in our paper. Below we provide some reflections on four expert responses to our paper.

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Derbyshire, J., Dhami, M K., Belton, I., & Önkal, D. (2023). The value of experiments in futures and foresight science: A reply. Futures & Foresight Science, e156. , which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.156. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.