Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers

Article

Dhami, M. and Mandel, D. 2022. Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers. Trends in Cognitive Sciences. 26 (6), pp. 514-526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2022.03.002
TypeArticle
TitleCommunicating uncertainty using words and numbers
AuthorsDhami, M. and Mandel, D.
Abstract

Life in an increasingly information-rich but highly uncertain world calls for an effective means of communicating uncertainty to a range of audiences. Senders prefer to convey uncertainty using verbal (e.g. likely) rather than numeric (e.g. 75% chance) probabilities, even in consequential domains such as climate science. However, verbal probabilities can convey something other than uncertainty, and senders may exploit this. For instance, senders can maintain credibility after making erroneous predictions. While verbal probabilities afford ease of expression, they can be easily misunderstood, and the potential for miscommunication is not effectively mitigated by assigning (imprecise) numeric probabilities to words. When making consequential decisions, recipients prefer (precise) numeric probabilities.

PublisherCell Press
JournalTrends in Cognitive Sciences
ISSN1364-6613
Electronic1879-307X
Publication dates
Online06 Apr 2022
PrintJun 2022
Publication process dates
Deposited08 Apr 2022
Accepted08 Mar 2022
Output statusPublished
Publisher's version
License
Accepted author manuscript
File Access Level
Restricted
Copyright Statement

Published version: Crown Copyright © 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
User License: Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2022.03.002
LanguageEnglish
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