Visualizing versus verbalizing uncertainty in intelligence analysis

Article

Dhami, M., Witt, J.K. and De Werd, P. 2025. Visualizing versus verbalizing uncertainty in intelligence analysis. Intelligence and National Security. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2025.2468049
TypeArticle
TitleVisualizing versus verbalizing uncertainty in intelligence analysis
AuthorsDhami, M., Witt, J.K. and De Werd, P.
Abstract

We compared the probability terms used by Western intelligence organizations against two visual encoding channel-based representations of uncertainty (i.e., darkness and thickness). Analysts were more sensitive to the probability being communicated under the word than thickness condition but not the darkness condition, with no difference among the visual conditions. However, sensitivity was not perfect. There was no difference in inter-individual variability across all conditions, which was generally poor. Test-retest reliability was greater in the word compared to thickness condition, but not the darkness condition, although, it was imperfect. Finally, analysts did not fully comply with existing uncertainty communication lexicons.

KeywordsUncertainty Communication; Verbal Probability; Visualization; Intelligence Analysis
Sustainable Development Goals16 Peace, justice and strong institutions
Middlesex University ThemeCreativity, Culture & Enterprise
PublisherTaylor & Francis (Routledge)
JournalIntelligence and National Security
ISSN0268-4527
Electronic1743-9019
Publication dates
Online15 Mar 2025
Publication process dates
Submitted04 Jan 2024
Accepted11 Feb 2025
Deposited24 Feb 2025
Output statusPublished
Publisher's version
License
File Access Level
Open
Copyright Statement

© 2025 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2025.2468049
LanguageEnglish
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