Visualizing versus verbalizing uncertainty in intelligence analysis

Article

Dhami, M., Witt, J.K. and De Werd, P. 2025. Visualizing versus verbalizing uncertainty in intelligence analysis. Intelligence and National Security.
TypeArticle
TitleVisualizing versus verbalizing uncertainty in intelligence analysis
AuthorsDhami, M., Witt, J.K. and De Werd, P.
Abstract

We compared the probability terms used by Western intelligence organizations against two visual encoding channel-based representations of uncertainty (i.e., darkness and thickness). Analysts were more sensitive to the probability being communicated under the word than thickness condition but not the darkness condition, with no difference among the visual conditions. However, sensitivity was not perfect. There was no difference in inter-individual variability across all conditions, which was generally poor. Test-retest reliability was greater in the word compared to thickness condition, but not the darkness condition, although, it was imperfect. Finally, analysts did not fully comply with existing uncertainty communication lexicons.

KeywordsUncertainty Communication; Verbal Probability; Visualization; Intelligence Analysis
Sustainable Development Goals16 Peace, justice and strong institutions
Middlesex University ThemeCreativity, Culture & Enterprise
PublisherTaylor & Francis (Routledge)
JournalIntelligence and National Security
ISSN0268-4527
Electronic1743-9019
Publication process dates
Accepted11 Feb 2025
Deposited24 Feb 2025
Output statusAccepted
Accepted author manuscript
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Open
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