Towards an evidence-based approach to communicating uncertainty in intelligence analysis
Article
Dhami, M. 2018. Towards an evidence-based approach to communicating uncertainty in intelligence analysis. Intelligence and National Security. 33 (2), pp. 257-272. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2017.1394252
Type | Article |
---|---|
Title | Towards an evidence-based approach to communicating uncertainty in intelligence analysis |
Authors | Dhami, M. |
Abstract | Intelligence products have a degree of uncertainty associated with them. This is typically expressed using linguistic probabilities (e.g., ‘likely’), and some organizations have adopted standardized lexicons for communicating uncertainty. This paper empirically shows that intelligence analysts use a wide heterogeneity of language to communicate uncertainty. This does not include all of the phrases in standardized lexicons used by the intelligence community. In addition, analysts may use some phrases differently to that advocated. Miscommunication of uncertainty can have deleterious effects on decision-making, and so standardization of uncertainty communication should be evidence-based. This paper discusses ways in which such evidence can be generated. |
Publisher | Taylor & Francis (Routledge) |
Journal | Intelligence and National Security |
ISSN | 0268-4527 |
Publication dates | |
Online | 30 Oct 2017 |
23 Feb 2018 | |
Publication process dates | |
Deposited | 12 Feb 2018 |
Accepted | 16 Oct 2017 |
Output status | Published |
Accepted author manuscript | |
Copyright Statement | This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Intelligence and National Security on 30/10/2017, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02684527.2017.1394252 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2017.1394252 |
Language | English |
https://repository.mdx.ac.uk/item/87727
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