The "analysis of competing hypotheses" in intelligence analysis
Article
Dhami, M., Belton, I. and Mandel, D. 2019. The "analysis of competing hypotheses" in intelligence analysis. Applied Cognitive Psychology. 33 (6), pp. 1080-1090. https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.3550
Type | Article |
---|---|
Title | The "analysis of competing hypotheses" in intelligence analysis |
Authors | Dhami, M., Belton, I. and Mandel, D. |
Abstract | The intelligence community uses ‘structured analytic techniques’ to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. However, little evidence exists of how techniques are applied and whether they are effective. We examined the use of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) – a technique designed to reduce ‘confirmation bias’. Fifty intelligence analysts were randomly assigned to use ACH or not when completing a hypothesis testing task that had probabilistic ground truth. Data on analysts’ judgment processes and conclusions was collected using written protocols that were then coded for statistical analyses. We found that ACH-trained analysts did not follow all of the steps of ACH. There was mixed evidence for ACH’s ability to reduce confirmation bias, and we observed that ACH may increase judgment inconsistency and error. It may be prudent for the intelligence community to consider the conditions under which ACH would prove useful, and to explore alternatives. |
Keywords | confirmation bias; hypothesis testing; intelligence analysis; judgement and decision making |
Publisher | Wiley |
Journal | Applied Cognitive Psychology |
ISSN | 0888-4080 |
Electronic | 1099-0720 |
Publication dates | |
Online | 30 Mar 2019 |
20 Nov 2019 | |
Publication process dates | |
Deposited | 04 Apr 2019 |
Accepted | 18 Mar 2019 |
Submitted | 19 Sep 2018 |
Output status | Published |
Publisher's version | License File Access Level Open |
Accepted author manuscript | File Access Level Restricted |
Copyright Statement | © 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of National Defence. |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.3550 |
Web of Science identifier | WOS:000497304400009 |
Language | English |
https://repository.mdx.ac.uk/item/8834v
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