An analysis of beer game trials

The main objective of this research was to investigate whether Perceptual Control Theory (PCT) can be used to model the complex operation of supply chains by human managers, as illustrated by the decisions of participants playing the Beer Game. The PCT model was tested on publically available data and simulations of the Beer Game by Middlesex University students. Spreadsheet analysis was used to investigate whether the system behaved in a closed-loop mode and determine which variable the players were actually controlling. Despite only a limited set of trials there is strong indication that PCT, incorporating the principle of closed loop control, does apply to the management operations in the Beer Game, with an overall average correlation coefficient of 0.72± 0.02 between the data obtained from a Simulink PCT model and Beer Game data from 14 groups of participants. This conclusion is supported by weighted integral control criteria and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests.