Evolutionary leap in large-scale flood risk assessment needed

Article

Vorogushyn, S., Bates, P., de Bruijn, K., Castellarin, A., Kreibich, H., Priest, S., Schröter, K., Bagli, S., Blöschl, G., Domeneghetti, A., Gouldby, B., Klijn, F., Lammersen, R., Neal, J., Ridder, N., Terink, W., Viavattene, C., Viglione, A., Zanardo, S. and Merz, B. 2018. Evolutionary leap in large-scale flood risk assessment needed. WIREs Water. 5 (2), p. e1266. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1266
TypeArticle
TitleEvolutionary leap in large-scale flood risk assessment needed
AuthorsVorogushyn, S., Bates, P., de Bruijn, K., Castellarin, A., Kreibich, H., Priest, S., Schröter, K., Bagli, S., Blöschl, G., Domeneghetti, A., Gouldby, B., Klijn, F., Lammersen, R., Neal, J., Ridder, N., Terink, W., Viavattene, C., Viglione, A., Zanardo, S. and Merz, B.
Abstract

Current approaches for assessing large-scale flood risks contravene the fundamental principles of the flood risk system functioning because they largely ignore basic interactions and feedbacks between atmosphere, catchments, river-floodplain systems and socio-economic processes. As a consequence, risk analyses are uncertain and might be biased. However, reliable risk estimates are required for prioritizing national investments in flood risk mitigation or for appraisal and management of insurance portfolios. We review several examples of process interactions and highlight their importance in shaping spatio-temporal risk patterns. We call for a fundamental redesign of the approaches used for large-scale flood risk assessment. They need to be capable to form a basis for large-scale flood risk management and insurance policies worldwide facing the challenge of increasing risks due to climate and global change. In particular, implementation of the European Flood Directive needs to be adjusted for the next round of flood risk mapping and development of flood risk management plans focussing on methods accounting for more process interactions in flood risk systems.

Research GroupFlood Hazard Research Centre
PublisherWiley
JournalWIREs Water
ISSN2049-1948
Publication dates
Online29 Dec 2017
Print16 Feb 2018
Publication process dates
Deposited12 Jan 2018
Accepted03 Nov 2017
Output statusPublished
Accepted author manuscript
Copyright Statement

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Vorogushyn S, Bates PD, KdeBruijn, et al. Evolutionary leap in large-scale flood risk assessment needed. WIREs Water. 2018;5:e1266. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1266, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1266. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.

Additional information

Volume 5, Issue 2, March/April 2018, Article number = e1266

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1266
LanguageEnglish
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Parker, D., Priest, S., Schildt, A. and Handmer, J. 2008. Developing models to estimate the benefits from flood warnings. European Commission. https://doi.org/T10-07-12
Socio-economic and ecological evaluation and modelling methodologies
Tapsell, S., Priest, S., Parker, D., Penning-Rowsell, E., Viavattene, C., Wilson, T., Handmer, J., Wijdeveld, A., Haasnoot, M., Penailillo, R., van den Ende,, F., van Noort,, P., Messner,, F., Meyer, V., Haase, D., Scheuer, S., Schildt, A., Lutoff, C. and Ruin, I. 2008. Socio-economic and ecological evaluation and modelling methodologies. European Commission.
Developing models to estimate the benefits from flood warnings: executive summary
Parker, D., Priest, S., Tapsell, S., Handmer, J. and Schildt, A. 2008. Developing models to estimate the benefits from flood warnings: executive summary. European Commission. https://doi.org/T10-08-11
Building models to estimate loss of life for flood events: executive summary
Priest, S., Tapsell, S., Penning-Rowsell, E., Viavattene, C. and Wilson, T. 2008. Building models to estimate loss of life for flood events: executive summary. European Commission. https://doi.org/T10-08-10
Developing a conceptual model of flood impacts upon human health
Tapsell, S., Tunstall, S. and Priest, S. 2009. Developing a conceptual model of flood impacts upon human health. European Commission.
Building a model to estimate risk to life for European flood events – final report
Priest, S., Wilson, T., Tapsell, S., Penning-Rowsell, E., Viavattene, C. and Fernandez-Bilbao, A. 2007. Building a model to estimate risk to life for European flood events – final report. European Commission. https://doi.org/T10-07-10
Flood risk management in Europe: the flood problem and interventions
Green, C., Dieperink, K., Ek, K., Hegger, D., Pettersson, M., Priest, S. and Tapsell, S. 2013. Flood risk management in Europe: the flood problem and interventions. European Commission.
Sustainable urban drainage system modelling for managing urban surface water flood risk
Ellis, J. and Viavattene, C. 2014. Sustainable urban drainage system modelling for managing urban surface water flood risk. CLEAN-Soil, Air & Water. 42 (2), pp. 153-159. https://doi.org/10.1002/clen.201300225
Evolving interregional co-operation in flood risk management: distances and types of partnership approaches in Austria
Thaler, T., Priest, S. and Fuchs, S. 2016. Evolving interregional co-operation in flood risk management: distances and types of partnership approaches in Austria. Regional Environmental Change. 16 (3), pp. 841-853. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0796-z
Evaluation of alternative pollutant emission control strategies to urban water systems using substance flow analysis
Lundy, L., Revitt, D., Eriksson, E. and Viavattene, C. 2011. Evaluation of alternative pollutant emission control strategies to urban water systems using substance flow analysis. 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage. Porto Alegre, Brazil 11 - 16 Sep 2011
RISC-KIT: Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT
Van Dongeren, A., Ciavola, P., Viavattene, C., De Kleermaeker, S., Martinez, G., Ferreira, O., Costa, C. and McCall, R. 2014. RISC-KIT: Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT. Journal of Coastal Research. https://doi.org/10.2112/SI70-062.1
Library of Coastal Vulnerability Indicators
Owen, D., Micou, P., Viavattene, C., Parker, D. and Priest, S. 2015. Library of Coastal Vulnerability Indicators. EU FP7 RISC-KIT Project.
Library of Coastal Vulnerability Indicators guidance document
Viavattene, C., Micou, P., Owen, D., Priest, S. and Parker, D. 2015. Library of Coastal Vulnerability Indicators guidance document. Middlesex University.
The rationales of resilience in English and Dutch flood risk policies
Wiering, M., Green, C., Van Rijswick, H., Priest, S. and Keessen, A. 2015. The rationales of resilience in English and Dutch flood risk policies. Journal of Water and Climate Change. 6 (1), pp. 38-54. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.017
Comparison of pollutant emission control strategies for cadmium and mercury in urban water systems using substance flow analysis
Revitt, D., Lundy, L., Eriksson, E. and Viavattene, C. 2013. Comparison of pollutant emission control strategies for cadmium and mercury in urban water systems using substance flow analysis. Journal of Environmental Management. 116, pp. 172-180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.12.007
Sharing the burden of adapting to increasing flood risk: who pays for flood insurance and flood risk management investment in the United Kingdom
Penning-Rowsell, E. and Priest, S. 2015. Sharing the burden of adapting to increasing flood risk: who pays for flood insurance and flood risk management investment in the United Kingdom. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 20 (6), pp. 991-1009. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9622-z
Partnership funding in flood risk management: new localism debate and policy in England
Thaler, T. and Priest, S. 2014. Partnership funding in flood risk management: new localism debate and policy in England. Area. 46 (4), pp. 418-425. https://doi.org/10.1111/area.12135
The many uncertainties in flood loss assessments
Chatterton, J., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Priest, S. 2014. The many uncertainties in flood loss assessments. in: Beven, K. and Hall, J. (ed.) Applied uncertainty analysis for flood risk management London Imperial College Press. pp. 335-356
Review of international flood insurance and recovery mechanisms: Implications for New Zealand and the resilience of older people - research summary
Priest, S. 2014. Review of international flood insurance and recovery mechanisms: Implications for New Zealand and the resilience of older people - research summary. Centre for Research Evaluation and Social Assessment, New Zealand.
Review of international flood insurance and recovery mechanisms: Implications for New Zealand and the resilience of older people
Priest, S. 2014. Review of international flood insurance and recovery mechanisms: Implications for New Zealand and the resilience of older people. Centre for Research Evaluation and Social Assessment, New Zealand.
Narrowing the focus: public understanding of flood maps in the River Thames catchment
Priest, S., Pardoe, J., McCarthy, S. and Viavattene, C. 2011. Narrowing the focus: public understanding of flood maps in the River Thames catchment. in: Zenz, G. and Hornich, R. (ed.) Urban Flood Risk Management: Approaches to enhance resilience of communities, Proceedings of the International Symposium, 21st-23rd September 2011 Graz Technischen Universitat Graz. pp. 309-314
The evolution of UK flood insurance: incremental change over six decades
Penning-Rowsell, E., Priest, S. and Johnson, C. 2014. The evolution of UK flood insurance: incremental change over six decades. International Journal of Water Resources Development. 30 (4), pp. 694-713. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2014.903166
Stormwater modeling and sustainable management in highly urbanised areas
Ellis, J. and Viavattene, C. 2014. Stormwater modeling and sustainable management in highly urbanised areas. in: Eslamian, S. (ed.) Handbook of Engineering Hydrology: Environmental Hydrology & Water Management Boca Raton, Florida. US CRC Press. pp. 347-363
Translating the complexities of flood risk science using KEEPER - a knowledge exchange exploratory tool for professionals in emergency response
Alexander, M., Viavattene, C., Faulkner, H. and Priest, S. 2014. Translating the complexities of flood risk science using KEEPER - a knowledge exchange exploratory tool for professionals in emergency response. Journal of Flood Risk Management. 7 (3), pp. 205-216. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12042
The management of urban surface water flood risks: SUDS performance in flood reduction from extreme events
Viavattene, C. and Ellis, J. 2013. The management of urban surface water flood risks: SUDS performance in flood reduction from extreme events. Water Science & Technology. 67 (1), pp. 99-108. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2012.537
Recommendations for the user-specific enhancement of flood maps
Meyer, V., Kuhlicke, C., Luther, J., Fuchs, S., Priest, S., Dorner, W., Serrhini, K., Pardoe, J., McCarthy, S., Seidel, J., Palka, G., Unnerstall, H., Viavattene, C. and Scheuer, S. 2012. Recommendations for the user-specific enhancement of flood maps. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 12, pp. 1701-1716. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1701-2012
Integrated modelling for urban surface water exceedance flows
Ellis, J., Viavattene, C., Chlebek, J. and Hetherington, D. 2012. Integrated modelling for urban surface water exceedance flows. Proceedings of the ICE - Water Management. 165 (10), pp. 543-552. https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.12.00029
The fallibility of flood warning chains: can Europe’s flood warnings be effective?
Parker, D. and Priest, S. 2012. The fallibility of flood warning chains: can Europe’s flood warnings be effective? Water Resources Management. 26 (10), pp. 2927-2950. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0057-6
An uncertainty index to measure the feasibility of Whole-Life Cycle Costing approach in flood risk management
Viavattene, C. and Faulkner, H. 2012. An uncertainty index to measure the feasibility of Whole-Life Cycle Costing approach in flood risk management. Journal of Flood Risk Management. 5 (3), pp. 215-225. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2012.01140.x
Flood and coastal erosion risk management: a manual for economic appraisal
Penning-Rowsell, E., Priest, S., Parker, D., Morris, J., Tunstall, S., Viavattene, C., Chatterton, J. and Owen, D. 2013. Flood and coastal erosion risk management: a manual for economic appraisal. London, UK Routledge.
Economic evaluation of structural and non-structural flood risk management measures: examples from the Mulde river
Meyer, V., Priest, S. and Kuhlicke, C. 2012. Economic evaluation of structural and non-structural flood risk management measures: examples from the Mulde river. Natural Hazards. 62 (2), pp. 301-324.
Assessing options for the development of surface water flood warning in England and Wales
Priest, S., Parker, D., Hurford, A., Walker, J. and Evans, K. 2011. Assessing options for the development of surface water flood warning in England and Wales. Journal of Environmental Management. 92 (12), pp. 3038-3048.
Modelling the potential damage-reducing benefits of flood warnings using European cases
Priest, S., Parker, D. and Tapsell, S. 2011. Modelling the potential damage-reducing benefits of flood warnings using European cases. Environmental Hazards: Human and Policy Dimensions. 10 (2), pp. 101-120. https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2011.579335
Emission control strategies for short-chain chloroparaffins in two semi-hypothetical case cities
Eriksson, E., Revitt, D., Holten Lützhøft, H., Viavattene, C., Lundy, L. and Steen Mikkelsen, P. Rauch, S. and Morrison, G. (ed.) 2012. Emission control strategies for short-chain chloroparaffins in two semi-hypothetical case cities. Springer.
Developing a process for stakeholder participation in flood risk mapping
Priest, S., Pardoe, J., McCarthy, S., Meyer, V., Kuhlicke, C. and Luther, J. 2012. Developing a process for stakeholder participation in flood risk mapping. Klijn, F. and Schweckendiek, T. (ed.) London CRC Press. pp. 185-186
Surface water flood warning requirements and potential in England and Wales
Parker, D., Priest, S. and McCarthy, S. 2011. Surface water flood warning requirements and potential in England and Wales. Applied Geography. 31 (3), pp. 891-900. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.01.002
The application of a GIS-based BMP selection tool for the evaluation of hydrologic performance and storm flow reduction.
Viavattene, C., Ellis, J., Revitt, D., Sieker, H. and Peters, C. 2010. The application of a GIS-based BMP selection tool for the evaluation of hydrologic performance and storm flow reduction. NovaTech 2010, 7th International Conference on 'Sustainable techniques and strategies in Urban Water Management'. Lyon, France 27 Jun - 01 Jul 2010
Emission control strategies for short-chain chloroparaffins in two semi-hypothetical case cities
Eriksson, E., Revitt, D., Holten Lützhøft, H., Viavattene, C., Lundy, L. and Mikkelsen, P. 2010. Emission control strategies for short-chain chloroparaffins in two semi-hypothetical case cities. 10th Urban Environment Symposium; Urban Futures for a Sustainable World. Gothenburg, Sweden 09 - 11 Jun 2010
Flood risk management in England: a changing landscape of risk responsibility?
Johnson, C. and Priest, S. 2008. Flood risk management in England: a changing landscape of risk responsibility? International Journal of Water Resources Development. 24 (4), pp. 513-525. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900620801923146
Understanding and enhancing the public's behavioural response to flood warning information.
Parker, D., Priest, S. and Tapsell, S. 2009. Understanding and enhancing the public's behavioural response to flood warning information. Meteorological Applications. 16 (1), pp. 103-114. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.119
An uncertainty index to measure the feasibility of whole life costing approach in flood risk management.
Viavattene, C. and Faulkner, H. 2009. An uncertainty index to measure the feasibility of whole life costing approach in flood risk management. Road Map Towards a Flood Resilient Urban Environment, Proceedings Final conference of the COST action C22 Urban Flood Management.. Paris, France.
The costs of the summer 2007 floods in England.
Chatterton, J., Viavattene, C., Morris, J., Penning-Rowsell, E., Tapsell, S., Flood Hazard Research Centre and Cranfield University, Department of Natural Resources 2010. The costs of the summer 2007 floods in England. Bristol, UK Environment Agency.
Development of a database to support the assessment of potential source control and treatment options for priority pollutants.
Viavattene, C., Revitt, D., Lundy, L., Donner, E., Cerk, M., Eriksson, E. and Seriki, K. 2009. Development of a database to support the assessment of potential source control and treatment options for priority pollutants. SETAC Europe, 19th Annual Meeting (Proceedings of). Gothenburg, Sweden 31 May - 04 Jun 2009
A GIS based Decision Support System tool dedicated to the implementation of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems.
Viavattene, C., Lundy, L., Revitt, D. and Ellis, J. 2008. A GIS based Decision Support System tool dedicated to the implementation of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems. 11th International Conference on Storm Drainage (Proceedings of). Edinburgh, UK 31 Aug - 05 Sep 2008
Confronting flood risk: implications for insurance and risk transfer
Treby, E., Clark, M. and Priest, S. 2006. Confronting flood risk: implications for insurance and risk transfer. Journal of Environmental Management. 81 (4), pp. 351-359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.11.010
Flood insurance: the challenge of the uninsured
Priest, S., Clark, M. and Treby, E. 2005. Flood insurance: the challenge of the uninsured. Area. 37 (3), pp. 295-302. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4762.2005.00633.x