The many uncertainties in flood loss assessments

Book chapter

Chatterton, J., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Priest, S. 2014. The many uncertainties in flood loss assessments. in: Beven, K. and Hall, J. (ed.) Applied uncertainty analysis for flood risk management London Imperial College Press. pp. 335-356
Chapter titleThe many uncertainties in flood loss assessments
AuthorsChatterton, J., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Priest, S.
Abstract

It is often assumed in the assessment of flood risk - gauged as probability times consequences - that all the main uncertainties lie in the hydrological and hydraulic fields, and that the human domain is inherently more predictable. This assumption arises more from ignorance than from a careful analysis of the evidence. The reality is that the human dimension in floods and flood risk assessment is also full of uncertainty, and this is the issue that is addressed in this chapter.

Research GroupFlood Hazard Research Centre
Page range335-356
Book titleApplied uncertainty analysis for flood risk management
EditorsBeven, K. and Hall, J.
PublisherImperial College Press
Place of publicationLondon
ISBN
Hardcover9787848162709
Publication dates
Print21 Mar 2014
Publication process dates
Deposited12 Dec 2014
Output statusPublished
Web address (URL)http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/p588
LanguageEnglish
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Meyer, V., Messner, F., Penning-Rowsell, E., Green, C., Tunstall, S., van der Veen, A., Tapsell, S., Wilson, T., Krywkow,, J., Logtmeijer, C., Fernández-Bilbao, A., Geurts, P., Haase, D. and Parker, D. 2009. Evaluating flood damages: guidance and recommendations on principles and methods executive summary. European Commission.
Developing models to estimate the benefits from flood warnings
Parker, D., Priest, S., Schildt, A. and Handmer, J. 2008. Developing models to estimate the benefits from flood warnings. European Commission. https://doi.org/T10-07-12
Socio-economic and ecological evaluation and modelling methodologies
Tapsell, S., Priest, S., Parker, D., Penning-Rowsell, E., Viavattene, C., Wilson, T., Handmer, J., Wijdeveld, A., Haasnoot, M., Penailillo, R., van den Ende,, F., van Noort,, P., Messner,, F., Meyer, V., Haase, D., Scheuer, S., Schildt, A., Lutoff, C. and Ruin, I. 2008. Socio-economic and ecological evaluation and modelling methodologies. European Commission.
Developing models to estimate the benefits from flood warnings: executive summary
Parker, D., Priest, S., Tapsell, S., Handmer, J. and Schildt, A. 2008. Developing models to estimate the benefits from flood warnings: executive summary. European Commission. https://doi.org/T10-08-11
Building models to estimate loss of life for flood events: executive summary
Priest, S., Tapsell, S., Penning-Rowsell, E., Viavattene, C. and Wilson, T. 2008. Building models to estimate loss of life for flood events: executive summary. European Commission. https://doi.org/T10-08-10
Developing a conceptual model of flood impacts upon human health
Tapsell, S., Tunstall, S. and Priest, S. 2009. Developing a conceptual model of flood impacts upon human health. European Commission.
Building a model to estimate risk to life for European flood events – final report
Priest, S., Wilson, T., Tapsell, S., Penning-Rowsell, E., Viavattene, C. and Fernandez-Bilbao, A. 2007. Building a model to estimate risk to life for European flood events – final report. European Commission. https://doi.org/T10-07-10
‘Contractual’ and ‘cooperative’ civic engagement: the emergence and roles of ‘flood action groups’ in England and Wales
Geaves, L. and Penning-Rowsell, E. 2015. ‘Contractual’ and ‘cooperative’ civic engagement: the emergence and roles of ‘flood action groups’ in England and Wales. Ambio. 44 (5), pp. 440-451. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-014-0576-x
The distributional consequences of future flood risk management in England and Wales
Penning-Rowsell, E. and Pardoe, J. 2015. The distributional consequences of future flood risk management in England and Wales. Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space. 33 (5), pp. 1301-1321. https://doi.org/10.1068/c13241
The robustness of flood insurance regimes given changing risk resulting from climate change
Lamond, J. and Penning-Rowsell, E. 2014. The robustness of flood insurance regimes given changing risk resulting from climate change. Climate Risk Management. 2, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2014.03.001
What do the 2013/14 floods tell us about overall flood risk in England and Wales?
Penning-Rowsell, E. 2014. What do the 2013/14 floods tell us about overall flood risk in England and Wales? Circulation: The Newsletter of the British Hydrological Society.
Promoting resilient economies by exploring insurance potential for facing coastal flooding and erosion: evidence from Italy, Spain, France and United Kingdom
González Dávila, O., Stithou, M., Pescaroli, G., Pietrantoni, L., Koundouri, P., Díaz-Simal, P., Rulleau, B., Touili, N., Hissel, F. and Penning-Rowsell, E. 2014. Promoting resilient economies by exploring insurance potential for facing coastal flooding and erosion: evidence from Italy, Spain, France and United Kingdom. Coastal Engineering. 87, pp. 183-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.12.007
Flood risk management in Europe: the flood problem and interventions
Green, C., Dieperink, K., Ek, K., Hegger, D., Pettersson, M., Priest, S. and Tapsell, S. 2013. Flood risk management in Europe: the flood problem and interventions. European Commission.
Innovation in coastal risk management: an exploratory analysis of risk governance issues at eight THESEUS study sites
Penning-Rowsell, E., De Vries, W., Parker, D., Zanuttigh, B., Simmonds, D., Trifonova, E., Hissel, F., Monbaliu, J., Lendzion, J., Ohle, N., Diaz, P. and Bouma, T. 2014. Innovation in coastal risk management: an exploratory analysis of risk governance issues at eight THESEUS study sites. Coastal Engineering. 87, pp. 210-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.12.005
Evolving interregional co-operation in flood risk management: distances and types of partnership approaches in Austria
Thaler, T., Priest, S. and Fuchs, S. 2016. Evolving interregional co-operation in flood risk management: distances and types of partnership approaches in Austria. Regional Environmental Change. 16 (3), pp. 841-853. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0796-z
Library of Coastal Vulnerability Indicators
Owen, D., Micou, P., Viavattene, C., Parker, D. and Priest, S. 2015. Library of Coastal Vulnerability Indicators. EU FP7 RISC-KIT Project.
Library of Coastal Vulnerability Indicators guidance document
Viavattene, C., Micou, P., Owen, D., Priest, S. and Parker, D. 2015. Library of Coastal Vulnerability Indicators guidance document. Middlesex University.
The rationales of resilience in English and Dutch flood risk policies
Wiering, M., Green, C., Van Rijswick, H., Priest, S. and Keessen, A. 2015. The rationales of resilience in English and Dutch flood risk policies. Journal of Water and Climate Change. 6 (1), pp. 38-54. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.017
Coastal risk assessment framework guidance document
Viavattene, C., Jiménez, J., Owen, D., Priest, S., Parker, D., Micou, P. and Ly, S. 2015. Coastal risk assessment framework guidance document.
Sharing the burden of adapting to increasing flood risk: who pays for flood insurance and flood risk management investment in the United Kingdom
Penning-Rowsell, E. and Priest, S. 2015. Sharing the burden of adapting to increasing flood risk: who pays for flood insurance and flood risk management investment in the United Kingdom. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 20 (6), pp. 991-1009. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9622-z
Partnership funding in flood risk management: new localism debate and policy in England
Thaler, T. and Priest, S. 2014. Partnership funding in flood risk management: new localism debate and policy in England. Area. 46 (4), pp. 418-425. https://doi.org/10.1111/area.12135
Review of international flood insurance and recovery mechanisms: Implications for New Zealand and the resilience of older people - research summary
Priest, S. 2014. Review of international flood insurance and recovery mechanisms: Implications for New Zealand and the resilience of older people - research summary. Centre for Research Evaluation and Social Assessment, New Zealand.
Review of international flood insurance and recovery mechanisms: Implications for New Zealand and the resilience of older people
Priest, S. 2014. Review of international flood insurance and recovery mechanisms: Implications for New Zealand and the resilience of older people. Centre for Research Evaluation and Social Assessment, New Zealand.
Narrowing the focus: public understanding of flood maps in the River Thames catchment
Priest, S., Pardoe, J., McCarthy, S. and Viavattene, C. 2011. Narrowing the focus: public understanding of flood maps in the River Thames catchment. in: Zenz, G. and Hornich, R. (ed.) Urban Flood Risk Management: Approaches to enhance resilience of communities, Proceedings of the International Symposium, 21st-23rd September 2011 Graz Technischen Universitat Graz. pp. 309-314
The evolution of UK flood insurance: incremental change over six decades
Penning-Rowsell, E., Priest, S. and Johnson, C. 2014. The evolution of UK flood insurance: incremental change over six decades. International Journal of Water Resources Development. 30 (4), pp. 694-713. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2014.903166
The consequences of doing nothing: the effects of seawater flooding on coastal zones
Hoggart, S., Hanley, M., Parker, D., Simmonds, D., Bilton, D., Filipova-Marinova, M., Franklin, E., Kotsev, I., Penning-Rowsell, E., Rundle, S., Trifonova, E., Vergiev, V., White, A. and Thompson, R. 2014. The consequences of doing nothing: the effects of seawater flooding on coastal zones. Coastal Engineering. 87, pp. 169-182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.12.001
Translating the complexities of flood risk science using KEEPER - a knowledge exchange exploratory tool for professionals in emergency response
Alexander, M., Viavattene, C., Faulkner, H. and Priest, S. 2014. Translating the complexities of flood risk science using KEEPER - a knowledge exchange exploratory tool for professionals in emergency response. Journal of Flood Risk Management. 7 (3), pp. 205-216. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12042
Recommendations for the user-specific enhancement of flood maps
Meyer, V., Kuhlicke, C., Luther, J., Fuchs, S., Priest, S., Dorner, W., Serrhini, K., Pardoe, J., McCarthy, S., Seidel, J., Palka, G., Unnerstall, H., Viavattene, C. and Scheuer, S. 2012. Recommendations for the user-specific enhancement of flood maps. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 12, pp. 1701-1716. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1701-2012
The fallibility of flood warning chains: can Europe’s flood warnings be effective?
Parker, D. and Priest, S. 2012. The fallibility of flood warning chains: can Europe’s flood warnings be effective? Water Resources Management. 26 (10), pp. 2927-2950. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0057-6
Who benefits and who loses from flood risk reduction?
Penning-Rowsell, E., Pardoe, J. and Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University 2012. Who benefits and who loses from flood risk reduction? Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space. 30 (3), pp. 448-466. https://doi.org/10.1068/c10208
The last resort? Population movement in response to climate-related hazards in Bangladesh
Penning-Rowsell, E., Sultana, P. and Thompson, P. 2013. The last resort? Population movement in response to climate-related hazards in Bangladesh. Environmental Science & Policy. 27 (Supl 1), pp. S44-S59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.03.009
Flood and coastal erosion risk management: a manual for economic appraisal
Penning-Rowsell, E., Priest, S., Parker, D., Morris, J., Tunstall, S., Viavattene, C., Chatterton, J. and Owen, D. 2013. Flood and coastal erosion risk management: a manual for economic appraisal. London, UK Routledge.
A threatened world city: the benefits of protecting London from the sea
Penning-Rowsell, E., Haigh, N., Lavery, S. and McFadden, L. 2012. A threatened world city: the benefits of protecting London from the sea. Natural Hazards.
Economic evaluation of structural and non-structural flood risk management measures: examples from the Mulde river
Meyer, V., Priest, S. and Kuhlicke, C. 2012. Economic evaluation of structural and non-structural flood risk management measures: examples from the Mulde river. Natural Hazards. 62 (2), pp. 301-324.
Floodplain conflicts: regulation and negotiation
Pardoe, J., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Tunstall, S. 2011. Floodplain conflicts: regulation and negotiation. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 11 (10), pp. 2889-2902.
Assessing options for the development of surface water flood warning in England and Wales
Priest, S., Parker, D., Hurford, A., Walker, J. and Evans, K. 2011. Assessing options for the development of surface water flood warning in England and Wales. Journal of Environmental Management. 92 (12), pp. 3038-3048.
Modelling the potential damage-reducing benefits of flood warnings using European cases
Priest, S., Parker, D. and Tapsell, S. 2011. Modelling the potential damage-reducing benefits of flood warnings using European cases. Environmental Hazards: Human and Policy Dimensions. 10 (2), pp. 101-120. https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2011.579335
Who loses if flood risk is reduced: should we be concerned?
Penning-Rowsell, E. and Pardoe, J. 2012. Who loses if flood risk is reduced: should we be concerned? Area. 44 (2), pp. 152-159.
Victim pressure, institutional inertia and climate change adaptation: the case of flood risk
Harries, T. and Penning-Rowsell, E. 2011. Victim pressure, institutional inertia and climate change adaptation: the case of flood risk. Global Environmental Change. 21 (1), pp. 188-197.
Developing a process for stakeholder participation in flood risk mapping
Priest, S., Pardoe, J., McCarthy, S., Meyer, V., Kuhlicke, C. and Luther, J. 2012. Developing a process for stakeholder participation in flood risk mapping. Klijn, F. and Schweckendiek, T. (ed.) London CRC Press. pp. 185-186
Micro-political and related barriers to stakeholder engagement in flood risk management
Tseng, C. and Penning-Rowsell, E. 2012. Micro-political and related barriers to stakeholder engagement in flood risk management. The Geographical Journal. 178 (3), pp. 253-269. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4959.2012.00464.x
What really determines policy? An evaluation of outcome measures for prioritising flood and coastal risk management in England
Johnson, C. and Penning-Rowsell, E. 2010. What really determines policy? An evaluation of outcome measures for prioritising flood and coastal risk management in England. Journal of Flood Risk Management. 3 (1), pp. 25-32. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01052.x
Surface water flood warning requirements and potential in England and Wales
Parker, D., Priest, S. and McCarthy, S. 2011. Surface water flood warning requirements and potential in England and Wales. Applied Geography. 31 (3), pp. 891-900. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.01.002
Human instability in flood flows.
Jonkman, S. and Penning-Rowsell, E. 2008. Human instability in flood flows. Journal of the American Water Resources Association. 44 (5), pp. 1208-1218. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00217.x
Flood risk management in England: a changing landscape of risk responsibility?
Johnson, C. and Priest, S. 2008. Flood risk management in England: a changing landscape of risk responsibility? International Journal of Water Resources Development. 24 (4), pp. 513-525. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900620801923146
Understanding and enhancing the public's behavioural response to flood warning information.
Parker, D., Priest, S. and Tapsell, S. 2009. Understanding and enhancing the public's behavioural response to flood warning information. Meteorological Applications. 16 (1), pp. 103-114. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.119
Strategic coastal flood-risk management in practice: Actors’ perspectives on the integration of flood risk management in London and the Thames Estuary.
McFadden, L., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Tapsell, S. 2009. Strategic coastal flood-risk management in practice: Actors’ perspectives on the integration of flood risk management in London and the Thames Estuary. Ocean & Coastal Management. 52 (12), pp. 636-645. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2009.10.001
The costs of the summer 2007 floods in England.
Chatterton, J., Viavattene, C., Morris, J., Penning-Rowsell, E., Tapsell, S., Flood Hazard Research Centre and Cranfield University, Department of Natural Resources 2010. The costs of the summer 2007 floods in England. Bristol, UK Environment Agency.
Land use and flood protection: contrasting approaches and outcomes in France and in England and Wales
Tunstall, S., Huberts, G., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Pottier, N. 2005. Land use and flood protection: contrasting approaches and outcomes in France and in England and Wales. Applied Geography. 25 (1), pp. 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2004.11.003
Resource accessibility and vulnerability in Andhra Pradesh: caste and non-caste influences
Bosher, L., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Tapsell, S. 2007. Resource accessibility and vulnerability in Andhra Pradesh: caste and non-caste influences. Development and Change. 38 (4), pp. 615-640. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7660.2007.00426.x
Vulnerability to flooding: health and social dimensions.
Tapsell, S., Penning-Rowsell, E., Tunstall, S. and Wilson, T. 2002. Vulnerability to flooding: health and social dimensions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series A. 360 (1796), pp. 1511-1525. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1013
Confronting flood risk: implications for insurance and risk transfer
Treby, E., Clark, M. and Priest, S. 2006. Confronting flood risk: implications for insurance and risk transfer. Journal of Environmental Management. 81 (4), pp. 351-359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.11.010
Flood insurance: the challenge of the uninsured
Priest, S., Clark, M. and Treby, E. 2005. Flood insurance: the challenge of the uninsured. Area. 37 (3), pp. 295-302. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4762.2005.00633.x
'Signals' from pre-crisis discourse: lessons from UK flooding for global environmental policy change?
Penning-Rowsell, E., Johnson, C. and Tunstall, S. 2006. 'Signals' from pre-crisis discourse: lessons from UK flooding for global environmental policy change? Global Environmental Change A. 16 (4), pp. 323-339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.01.006
Gauging the impact of natural hazards: the pattern and cost of emergency response during flood events
Penning-Rowsell, E. and Wilson, T. 2006. Gauging the impact of natural hazards: the pattern and cost of emergency response during flood events. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers. 31 (2), pp. 99-115. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5661.2006.00200.x
Estimating injury and loss of life in floods: a deterministic framework.
Penning-Rowsell, E., Floyd, P., Ramsbottom, D. and Surendran, S. 2005. Estimating injury and loss of life in floods: a deterministic framework. Natural Hazards. 36 (1-2), pp. 43-64. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-4538-7
Future flooding, Scientific Summary (Vol 1. Future risks and their drivers and Vol.2. Managing future risks, plus executive summary).
Penning-Rowsell, E., Ashley, R., Evans, E. and Hall, J. 2004. Future flooding, Scientific Summary (Vol 1. Future risks and their drivers and Vol.2. Managing future risks, plus executive summary). Office of Science and Technology.
Floods as catalysts for policy change: historical lessons from England and Wales
Johnson, C., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Tunstall, S. 2005. Floods as catalysts for policy change: historical lessons from England and Wales. International Journal of Water Resources Development. 21 (4), pp. 561-575. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900620500258133
Aspiration and reality: flood policy, economic damages and the appraisal process
Johnson, C., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Tapsell, S. 2007. Aspiration and reality: flood policy, economic damages and the appraisal process. Area. 39 (2), pp. 214-223. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4762.2007.00727.x
Flood insurance and government: 'parasitic'and 'symbiotic' relations.
Green, C. and Penning-Rowsell, E. 2004. Flood insurance and government: 'parasitic'and 'symbiotic' relations. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice. 29 (3), pp. 518-539. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0440.2004.00301.x
Natural and imposed injustices: the challenges in implementing 'fair' flood risk management policy in England
Johnson, C., Parker, D. and Penning-Rowsell, E. 2007. Natural and imposed injustices: the challenges in implementing 'fair' flood risk management policy in England. The Geographical Journal. 173 (4), pp. 374-390. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4959.2007.00256.x