Sentiment-driven stock price prediction: analysing green finance news using large language models for Tesla

Conference paper

Lorvand, A., Yetgin, H., Smith, S., Alkubaisy, D. and Piras, L. 2026. Sentiment-driven stock price prediction: analysing green finance news using large language models for Tesla. Ana Paula Rocha, Mattias Wahde and H. Jaap van den Herik (ed.) 18th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence. Marbella, Spain 05 - 07 Mar 2026 SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications. pp. 2596-2605 https://doi.org/10.5220/0014306600004052
TypeConference paper
TitleSentiment-driven stock price prediction: analysing green finance news using large language models for Tesla
AuthorsLorvand, A., Yetgin, H., Smith, S., Alkubaisy, D. and Piras, L.
Abstract

The rise of green finance has had a significant impact on the way investors evaluate a company’s performance, prompting them to consider environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria alongside traditional financial metrics. Nevertheless, research investigating the potential of ESG-related news to improve stock price prediction models is still limited. This study examines the effectiveness of sentiment analysis derived from green finance and ESG-related news to improve stock price forecasts specifically for Tesla Inc. Historical stock price data was combined with sentiment scores extracted from ESG-related news articles using FinBERT. Two recurrent neural network models (RNN) and two long short-term memory (LSTM) models were developed and evaluated, both with and without the inclusion of sentiment features. The results show that sentiment features have only a modest impact on predictions during stable market conditions, while they provide significant improvements during periods of market volatility. Specifically, during a volatile period when Tesla’s share price fluctuated between $340 and $480, the inclusion of sentiment features in the LSTM model reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) from 9.87 to 4.06. This significant reduction underscores the improved accuracy achieved by incorporating textual sentiment data. Overall, these results emphasise the importance and potential benefits of combining traditional financial indicators with textual data analysis, especially in times of increased market uncertainty.

KeywordsSentiment Analysis; Green Finance; Large Language Models; Long Short-Term Memory; Recurrent Neural Network; Artificial Intelligence
Sustainable Development Goals9 Industry, innovation and infrastructure
13 Climate action
Middlesex University ThemeCreativity, Culture & Enterprise
Research GroupResearch Group on Development of Intelligent Environments
Conference18th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence
Page range2596-2605
Proceedings TitleProceedings of the 18th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence - Volume 3: ICAART
EditorsAna Paula Rocha, Mattias Wahde and H. Jaap van den Herik
ISSN2184-433X
ISBN9789897587962
PublisherSCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications
Publication dates
Print08 Mar 2026
Publication process dates
Accepted19 Dec 2025
Deposited09 Apr 2026
Output statusPublished
Publisher's version
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Open
Copyright Statement

Lorvand, A., Yetgin, H., Smith, S., Alkubaisy, D. and Piras, L.
Sentiment-Driven Stock Price Prediction: Analysing Green Finance News Using Large Language Models for Tesla. DOI: 10.5220/0014306600004052
Paper published under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
In Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence (ICAART 2026) - Volume 3, pages 2596-2605
ISBN: 978-989-758-796-2; ISSN: 2184-433X
Proceedings Copyright © 2026 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.5220/0014306600004052
Web address (URL) of conference proceedingshttps://www.scitepress.org/ProceedingsDetails.aspx?ID=/WDmuZiE4ss=&t=1
LanguageEnglish
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Piras, L., Giorgini, P. and Mylopoulos, J. 2016. Acceptance requirements and their gamification solutions. IEEE 24th International Requirements Engineering Conference. Beijing, China 12 - 16 Sep 2016 IEEE. pp. 365-370 https://doi.org/10.1109/RE.2016.43
Bridging the digital divide for e-learning students through adaptive VLEs
Spiteri, C., De Raffaele, C. and Smith, S. 2016. Bridging the digital divide for e-learning students through adaptive VLEs. 2016 IEEE International Conference on Teaching, Assessment, and Learning for Engineering (TALE 2016). Bangkok, Thailand 07 - 09 Dec 2016 IEEE. pp. 210-217 https://doi.org/10.1109/TALE.2016.7851796
Teaching and learning queueing theory concepts using Tangible User Interfaces
De Raffaele, C., Smith, S. and Gemikonakli, O. 2016. Teaching and learning queueing theory concepts using Tangible User Interfaces. 2016 IEEE International Conference on Teaching, Assessment, and Learning for Engineering (TALE 2016). Bangkok, Thailand 07 - 09 Dec 2016 IEEE. pp. 194-201 https://doi.org/10.1109/TALE.2016.7851794
The aptness of tangible user interfaces for explaining abstract computer network principles
De Raffaele, C., Smith, S. and Gemikonakli, O. 2016. The aptness of tangible user interfaces for explaining abstract computer network principles. FIE 2016 -The 46th Annual Frontiers in Education (FIE) Conference. Erie, PA, USA 12 - 15 Oct 2016 IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/FIE.2016.7757573
Network-lifetime maximization of wireless sensor networks
Yetgin, H., Cheung, K.T.K., El-Hajjar, M. and Hanzo, L. 2015. Network-lifetime maximization of wireless sensor networks. IEEE Access. 3, pp. 2191-2226. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2015.2493779
Cross-layer network lifetime maximization in interference-limited WSNs
Yetgin, H,, Cheung, K.T.K., El-Hajjar, M. and Hanzo, L. 2015. Cross-layer network lifetime maximization in interference-limited WSNs. IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology. 64 (8), pp. 3795-3803. https://doi.org/10.1109/TVT.2014.2360361
Using gamification to incentivize sustainable urban mobility
Kazhamiakin, R., Marconi, A., Perillo, M., Pistore, M., Valetto, G., Piras, L., Avesani, F. and Perri, N. 2015. Using gamification to incentivize sustainable urban mobility. IEEE First International Smart Cities Conference. Guadalajara, Mexico 25 - 28 Oct 2015 IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ISC2.2015.7366196
An expert review of REVERIE and its potential for game-based learning
Doumanis, I., Porter, S., Economou, D. and Smith, S. 2015. An expert review of REVERIE and its potential for game-based learning. Preuveneers, D. (ed.) The 11th International Conference on Intelligent Environments - IE'15. Prague 13 - 14 Jul 2015 IOS Press. pp. 306-313 https://doi.org/10.3233/978-1-61499-530-2-306
Evaluating an intelligent Q&A system for mobile cultural learning
Doumanis, I. and Smith, S. 2015. Evaluating an intelligent Q&A system for mobile cultural learning. EAI Endorsed Transactions on Future Intelligent Educational Environments. 15 (2). https://doi.org/10.4108/fiee.1.2.e3
The use of social networking sites in eLearning
De Raffaele, C., Bugeja, L. and Smith, S. 2015. The use of social networking sites in eLearning. International Journal of Social, Behavioral, Educational, Economic and Management Engineering. 9 (4), pp. 1223-1228.
Assessment techniques in cross-cultural usability evaluation
Jagne, J., Smith, S. and Duncker-Gassen, E. 2006. Assessment techniques in cross-cultural usability evaluation. IADIS WWW/Internet International Conference 2006. Murcia, Spain
Cross-layer network lifetime optimisation considering transmit and signal processing power in wireless sensor networks
Yetgin, H., Cheung, K.T.K., El-Hajjar, M. and Hanzo, L. 2014. Cross-layer network lifetime optimisation considering transmit and signal processing power in wireless sensor networks. IET Wireless Sensor Systems. 4 (4), pp. 176-182. https://doi.org/10.1049/iet-wss.2014.0049
Intelligent environments simulations, towards a smart campus
Campuzano, F., Doumanis, I., Smith, S. and Botia, J. 2014. Intelligent environments simulations, towards a smart campus. The University as a Context Platform, Workshop. University of West London, London, United Kingdom 14 Nov 2014 https://doi.org/10.13140/2.1.3141.3447
Evaluating the impact of embodied conversational agents (ECAs) attentional behaviors on user retention of cultural content in a simulated mobile environment
Doumanis, I. and Smith, S. 2014. Evaluating the impact of embodied conversational agents (ECAs) attentional behaviors on user retention of cultural content in a simulated mobile environment. GazeIn '14: 7th Workshop on Eye Gaze in Intelligent Human Machine Interaction: Eye-Gaze & Multimodality. Istanbul, Turkey 16 - 16 Nov 2014 Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). pp. 27-32 https://doi.org/10.1145/2666642.2666650
Evaluating the impact of ECAs on user navigation performance and perception
Doumanis, I. and Smith, S. 2013. Evaluating the impact of ECAs on user navigation performance and perception. 13th International Conference on Intelligent Virtual Agents. Edinburgh, United Kingdom 29 - 31 Aug 2013 Springer. pp. 474-475
Beyond Artificial Intelligence Markup Language (AIML) rapid prototyping of a Q&A system
Doumanis, I. and Smith, S. 2013. Beyond Artificial Intelligence Markup Language (AIML) rapid prototyping of a Q&A system. 1st International Workshop on Museums as Intelligent Environments (MASIE'13). Athens, Greece 16 - 17 Jul 2013 IOS Press. pp. 530-540 https://doi.org/10.3233/978-1-61499-286-8-530
An empirical study on the effects of embodied conversational agents on user retention performance and perception in a simulated mobile environment
Doumanis, I. and Smith, S. 2013. An empirical study on the effects of embodied conversational agents on user retention performance and perception in a simulated mobile environment. Botía, J. and Charitos, D. (ed.) 2nd Workshop on Future Intelligent Educational Environments Conference (WOFIEE’13). Athens, Greece 16 - 17 Jul 2013 IOS Press. pp. 431-442 https://doi.org/10.3233/978-1-61499-286-8-431
Multi-objective routing optimization using evolutionary algorithms
Yetgin, H., Cheung, K.T.K. and Hanzo, L. 2012. Multi-objective routing optimization using evolutionary algorithms. 2012 IEEE Wireless Communications and Networking Conference. Paris, France 01 - 04 Apr 2012 IEEE. pp. 3030-3034 https://doi.org/10.1109/WCNC.2012.6214324
Embedding information literacy skills as employability attributes
Smith, S. and Edwards, J. 2012. Embedding information literacy skills as employability attributes. LILAC 2012. Glasgow, Scotland 11 - 13 Apr 2012
Embedded writing instruction in the first year curriculum
Bernaschina, P. and Smith, S. 2012. Embedded writing instruction in the first year curriculum. Journal of Learning Development in Higher Education. https://doi.org/10.47408/jldhe.v0i0.186
Embedding information literacy skills as employability attributes
Smith, S. and Edwards, J. 2012. Embedding information literacy skills as employability attributes. ALISS Quarterly. 7 (4), pp. 22-27.
Human-computer interaction: users, tasks and designs
Adams, R. and Smith, S. 2005. Human-computer interaction: users, tasks and designs. London Middlesex University Press.
Paradigms, technology and demand characteristics for universal access: can we treat different technologies the same?
Adams, R. and Smith, S. 2005. Paradigms, technology and demand characteristics for universal access: can we treat different technologies the same? in: HCI international 2005 11th international conference on human-computer interaction: proceedings. Mahwah, NJ. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates..
A portable wireless-based architecture for solving minimum digital divide problems
Fenu, G. and Piras, L. 2008. A portable wireless-based architecture for solving minimum digital divide problems. 4th International Conference on Wireless and Mobile Communications. Athens, Greece 27 Jul - 01 Aug 2008 IEEE. pp. 130-136 https://doi.org/10.1109/icwmc.2008.21
Cross-cultural system design strategy: avoiding problems in usability evaluation
Jagne, J., Duncker-Gassen, E. and Smith, S. 2006. Cross-cultural system design strategy: avoiding problems in usability evaluation. IADIS WWW/Internet International Conference 2006. Murcia, Spain pp. 88-92