How analysts think: navigating uncertainty – aspirations, considerations and strategies

While there has been considerable research in understanding the process of sense making in criminal intelligence analysis as well as the formulation of arguments in the domain of law, there remain gaps in our understanding of how to move seamlessly from the fluidity of the sense making activities to the rigour of argumentation construction. This matter is complicated further with high uncertainty which accompanies sense making and which propagates through to the rigour that accompanies argumentation. This paper attempts to understand how Criminal Intelligence Analysts navigate uncertainty from fluidity to rigour constructs and outlines some of the considerations and strategies deployed by the Criminal Intelligence Analyst to reach, or increase, certainty at a given point in time during the analysis process. This paper concludes by proposing preliminary suggestions with the aim to narrow the gaps in this journey from fluidity to rigour, at least, marginally

This is the accepted manuscript of a paper published in its final form in NDM13 Naturalistic Decision Making and Uncertainty: Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making, 20-23 June 2017, Bath, UK, edited by Julie Gore and Paul Ward. Reproduced with permission of The University of Bath, School of Management Research Office.